Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 17–18 July, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of...
SELIC Rate in Brazil
Brazil's central bank policy rates fluctuated significantly over the last decade, mirroring the country's economic challenges. Rates were initially high due to inflation concerns but were cut to historic lows during the pandemic to stimulate growth. Post-2020, rates were again increased in response to rising inflation and economic recovery needs, with the Central Bank beginning another easing cycle midway through 2023 as concerns over prices dimmed. Conditions changed towards end-2024, with the Bank once more jacking up rates to ward off stubborn price pressures.
The selic rate ended 2024 at 12.25%, compared to the end-2023 value of 11.75% and the figure a decade earlier of 11.75%. It averaged 9.70% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Brazil from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil Interest Rate Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELIC Rate (%, eop) | 2.00 | 9.25 | 13.75 | 11.75 | 12.25 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 6.90 | 10.83 | 12.66 | 10.36 | 15.21 |
Central Bank hikes further in June
Latest decision: At its June meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) increased its SELIC rate by 25 basis points to 15.00%. Rates have now risen by 450 basis points since Q2 last year.
Inflation concerns drive additional hike: The key driver of the hike was inflation, with both headline and core inflation metrics remaining above the BCB’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band. High inflation projections, robust economic activity and a tight labor market were further factors at play.
BCB suggests rates will stay on hold: The Bank said it would likely leave rates on hold to assess the impact of past interest rate increases, but left the door open to more rate hikes if needed to tame inflation. The Consensus among our panelists is currently for the SELIC rate to end this year slightly below the current level, though forecasts could be revised higher going forward as panelists react to the June meeting outcome.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “For now, we expect Copom to keep the Selic at 15.00% until early 2026, when it should begin a 200 basis point easing cycle. An appreciation of the exchange rate could bring forward this move, while a stronger-than-expected economy could lead Copom to postpone the start of the rate-cutting cycle.” EIU analysts said: “Assuming that inflation and inflation expectations gradually converge towards the mid-point of the BCB’s 1.5–4.5% target range, we expect the central bank to begin cutting rates in late 2025 (or early 2026), bringing the Selic rate to a terminal level of about 9% in 2027–28.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 34 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Brazilian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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