Central Bank extends monetary policy easing cycle: At its meeting on 4–5 June, the Governing Council decided to lower its...
SELIC Rate in Brazil
Brazil's central bank policy rates fluctuated significantly over the last decade, mirroring the country's economic challenges. Rates were initially high due to inflation concerns but were cut to historic lows during the pandemic to stimulate growth. Post-2020, rates were again increased in response to rising inflation and economic recovery needs, with the Central Bank beginning another easing cycle midway through 2023 as concerns over prices dimmed. Conditions changed towards end-2024, with the Bank once more jacking up rates to ward off stubborn price pressures.
The selic rate ended 2024 at 12.25%, compared to the end-2023 value of 11.75% and the figure a decade earlier of 11.75%. It averaged 9.70% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Brazil from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil Interest Rate Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELIC Rate (%, eop) | 2.00 | 9.25 | 13.75 | 11.75 | 12.25 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 6.90 | 10.83 | 12.66 | 10.36 | 15.21 |
Central Bank in March delivers third 100 basis point increase
Central Bank sticks to previously announced forward guidance: At its 18–19 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) increased its SELIC rate by 100 basis points to 14.25%. This marked the third consecutive 100 basis point rise, and brought the cumulative hikes to 375 basis points since September 2024. The decision was again unanimous and had been priced in by markets as the BCB stuck to the forward guidance from its December meeting.
Stubbornly high inflation motivates aggressive tightening: The key driver of the hike was above-target price pressures; both headline and core inflation have trended upward since H2 2024, the former exceeding the Bank’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance band for the fifth straight month in February. The BCB’s 2025 inflation projections improved marginally to 5.1% from 5.2% at its latest meeting; despite the downtick, the metric remains notably above the Bank’s tolerance band. Additionally, inflation expectations de-anchored further recently.
Pace of tightening cycle to slow ahead: The Central Bank’s forward guidance indicated a smaller increase at the next meeting, scheduled for 6–7 May. Our Consensus is for the Central Bank to increase its SELIC rate further in Q2 before reducing it slightly by December. The government’s fiscal policy remains a key factor to monitor due to its effect on domestic demand.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 33 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Brazilian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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