Consumption in Brazil
Brazil - Consumption
Growth slips through last year-end
Fourth-quarter national accounts revealed that Brazil’s two-year-old economic recovery stumbled through last year-end. Economic growth is estimated to have come in at a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, down from the third quarter’s 0.5% quarter-on-quarter outturn and well below analysts’ expectations.
Domestically, fixed investment fell sharply from a quarter earlier (Q4: -2.5% quarter-on-quarter s.a.; Q3: +5.5% qoq s.a.) amid plunging inventories and higher borrowing costs. Moreover, government spending fell (Q4: -0.3% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.3% qoq s.a). Household spending, meanwhile, largely held up (Q4: +0.4% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.5% qoq s.a) in line with the improving labor market and despite election-year political wrangling.
On the external front, growth of exports of goods and services moderated considerably (Q4: +3.6% qoq s.a.; Q3: +6.3% qoq s.a) amid regional tumult and an increasingly challenging economic backdrop. Imports of goods and services, on the other hand, contracted sharply (Q4: -6.6% qoq s.a.; Q3: +9.4% qoq s.a) in line with fewer receipts of machinery and equipment.
On an annual basis, growth slowed to 1.1% from 1.3% a quarter earlier.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 2.5%.
Brazil - Consumption Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 2.3 | -3.2 | -4.3 | 1.0 |
Brazil Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.90 | -0.82 % | Mar 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 3.84 | -0.13 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 98,027 | -0.40 % | Mar 11 |
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Economic News
Brazil: Retail sales bounce back in January
March 15, 2019
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) increased 0.4% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, notably contrasting December’s revised 2.1% contraction (previously reported: +2.2% month-on-month).
Brazil: Industrial production drops in January
March 13, 2019
Industrial production contracted in January, falling 0.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms.
Brazil: Bolsonaro’s ambitious social-security reform bill likely to get diluted in Congress
March 12, 2019
Taking aim at the government’s strained finances, newly-elected President Jair Bolsonaro presented Congress with a comprehensive social-security reform bill on 20 February.
Brazil: Business confidence rises further in February
March 1, 2019
Business sentiment in Brazil improved in February, with the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) business confidence index rising to 99.0 points from 98.2 points in January.
Brazil: Manufacturing PMI rises again in February
March 1, 2019
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector became more favorable in February.
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