Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

According to official figures, the economy expanded a robust 6.3% in Q1 from the previous quarter on the back of solid private sector activity. However, the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in global oil prices, which have severely depressed oil and gas revenues, is set to deal a heavy blow to the economy this year. While authorities still claim there are no virus cases, President Berdymukhamedov announced measures in the beginning of April to cushion the impact of the pandemic, including increased import-substitution; heightened levels of industrial self-sufficiency; additional credit to small- and medium-sized firms; and tax deferrals. The government’s budget is currently being revised to account for these measures but there are no details of the size of the package thus far.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the sharp drop in global oil prices will hammer the economy this year. Feeble demand from key trading partners, such as China, is set to take a heavy toll on the external sector. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see growth plummeting to 0.2% this year. For 2021, the panel projects GDP growth at 4.2%.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,9636,4336,4136,6427,064
GDP (USD bn)43.535.836.237.940.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.9-0.7-2.4-2.8-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.821.824.128.829.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.853.403.483.503.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.853.493.433.503.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-15.6-19.9-11.5-8.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-5.6-7.2-4.4-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)3.5-15.3-18.6-2.525.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.9-27.3-13.2-24.5-36.9
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Turkmenistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Jan 01

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