Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
A gas-exporting economy:
Turkmenistan’s economy is dominated by natural gas, which accounts for the bulk of government revenue and exports. China is the largest buyer of Turkmen gas, followed by Russia and Iran. The country’s vast reserves give it economic potential, but overreliance on gas makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations and limited export diversification.
State-controlled economic model:The government maintains strict control over the economy, with limited private sector development. Subsidized utilities, price controls, and state-directed industries have kept inflation low but restricted competition and foreign investment. Economic data transparency is low, making it difficult to assess real economic conditions.
Challenges in diversification and trade:Despite efforts to develop agriculture and textile industries, diversification remains weak. Turkmenistan has struggled to expand its gas export routes, relying heavily on China for economic stability. Trade restrictions, strict government controls, and an isolated financial system hinder integration into global markets.
Economic outlook for Turkmenistan:While gas exports will continue to drive growth, Turkmenistan’s long-term prospects depend on economic reforms, diversification efforts, and increased transparency. Without structural changes, the country remains highly exposed to external shocks and fluctuations in global energy markets.
Turkmenistan's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 59.9 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 67.0 billion in 2022.
Nominal GDP of USD 67.0 billion in 2022.
GDP per capita of USD 10,420 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 10,420 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 9,191 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1.3% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1.3% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1.3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2021, services accounted for 47.8% of overall GDP, manufacturing %, other industrial activity 40.6%, and agriculture 11.6%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 12.3% of GDP in 2012, government consumption 10.0%, fixed investment 47.2%, and net exports 30.5%.International trade
In 2000, manufactured products made up 6.9% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 81.0%, food 0.3%, ores and metals 0.4% and agricultural raw materials 9.9%, with other categories accounting for 1.5% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 79.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 1.2%, food 11.7%, ores and metals 1.0% and agricultural raw materials 0.4%, with other goods accounting for 5.9% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 12.40 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 3.80 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.3% in the decade to 2022. To read more about GDP growth in Turkmenistan, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Turkmenistan's fiscal surplus averaged 0.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.1% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Turkmenistan's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 8.5% in the decade to 2023. Go to our Turkmenistan inflation page for extra insight.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the manat stayed on the same level vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the manat, click here.
Economic situation in Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan’s GDP growth was stable at 2023’s 6.3% in 2024, according to the country’s official data, suggesting a continued recovery from disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Tailwinds included higher public sector wages and pensions, streamlined trade procedures and major state-funded infrastructure projects. That said, the IMF estimates GDP growth at a much lower 3.0% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2023, suggesting problems with data reliability. Headwinds to GDP growth included inefficient investment allocation, weak private sector activity, geopolitical isolation and stagnant oil production. Hydrocarbon shipments—accounting for more than 80% of merchandise exports—were subdued. So far in 2025, the government has continued to depict a bright economic landscape, reporting 6.3% year-on-year GDP growth in January–May, buttressed by solid momentum in manufacturing, construction and services.Turkmenistan Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.32 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 10 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Turkmenistan in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 32 economic indicators for Turkmenistan from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Turkmenistan economy. To download a sample report on the Turkmenistan's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.