Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
After a probable contraction in Q2 as the fallout from the pandemic took its toll, the economy seemingly recovered somewhat but remained broadly downbeat in Q3, as the restrictions imposed in July likely hurt domestic activity. However, momentum should have been supported by recovering Chinese demand and higher prices for oil and gas. Going into Q4, the ongoing global rise in Covid-19 cases poses a downside risk to external demand and energy prices. In other news, parliament approved the 2021 budget in October, 70% of which is reportedly set aside for social spending. Moreover, the plan pencils in a 10% rise in wages, state benefits, pensions and student allowances, and envisions 6.2% GDP growth for 2021—well above our 4.8% forecast.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
This year, the economy should remain stagnant as the pandemic pummels the vital external sector. That said, economic activity should gain steam in 2021 as trade rebounds on improving foreign demand. That said, the prolongation of the pandemic, volatile commodity prices and regional geopolitical instability pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 4.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2022, the panel projects GDP growth of 5.2%.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,425 | 6,696 | 6,650 | 7,083 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 40.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -0.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 24.1 | 28.8 | 29.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -15.6 | -20.2 | -10.4 | 5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -5.6 | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -15.2 | -17.2 | -4.1 | 25.9 | 1.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -27.3 | -13.2 | -24.5 | -40.9 | 23.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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