Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020
Although no Covid-19 cases have been officially reported yet, the economy still should have been pummeled by the pandemic throughout the first half of the year. Restrictions on internal movement likely took their toll on domestic activity, while the external sector seems to have been hit hard by eviscerated foreign demand, depressed commodity prices and disrupted global supply chains. Turning to H2, momentum is likely improving somewhat, as rebounding Chinese demand, the easing of restrictions globally and higher natural gas prices should be prompting a recovery in exports. However, additional social distancing measures imposed in mid-July, including the temporary closure of shopping centers and cancellation of large gatherings, bode ill for the recovery in H2.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic is set to deal a heavy blow to the economy this year as weaker demand from key trading partners will likely hammer the external sector. In 2021, the economy should gain steam as trade rebounds on improving foreign demand. Volatile commodity prices pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP edging up 0.2% this year. For 2021, the panel projects GDP growth of 4.8%, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,425 | 6,696 | 6,650 | 7,083 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 40.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -0.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 24.1 | 28.8 | 29.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -15.6 | -20.2 | -10.4 | 5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -5.6 | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -15.2 | -17.2 | -4.1 | 25.9 | 1.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -27.3 | -13.2 | -24.5 | -40.9 | 23.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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