Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
July 7, 2020
Although official statistics paint a rosy picture of the economy in the first quarter and the authorities still claim that the coronavirus has not reached the country, the pandemic and its consequent containment measures abroad and at home likely dealt a heavy blow to activity in the first half of the year. The Chinese lockdown will have hammered gas exports, which account for 16% of GDP, while internal restrictions to movement and border closures will be weighing on domestic demand. To cushion the economic fallout, the authorities have reportedly imposed tax relief measures, facilitated access to credit, and increased import substitution. Moreover, exchange restrictions have been tightened, with custom duties on some goods raised, while Turkmen companies reportedly have to surrender their foreign currency income to the government to boost reserve funds.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
Economic activity is expected to slow markedly this year, hit by fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and depressed global oil prices. Hampered demand from key trading partners, particularly China, will likely constrain the external sector. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 0.4% this year, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month. For 2021, the panel projects GDP growth of 5.9%.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,425 | 6,696 | 6,650 | 7,083 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 40.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -0.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 24.1 | 28.8 | 29.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -15.6 | -20.2 | -10.4 | 5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -5.6 | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -15.2 | -17.2 | -4.1 | 25.9 | 1.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -27.3 | -13.2 | -24.5 | -40.9 | 23.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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