Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018
An official report in June put growth in the first five months of the year at 6.2% year-on-year, stable from the first four months on robust industrial output and strong consumption dynamics. As reported, all industrial sectors posted gains in the month. Moreover, higher global energy prices have likely bolstered the oil and gas sector, which has been wrangling with capacity constraints. Meanwhile, despite steep import tariffs and elevated inflation, retail sales have been booming in recent months. In June, UN officials reported that late-stage development of the USD 10 billion TAPI natural gas pipeline has not been fully financed, threatening to delay the project’s completion.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
Oil and gas exports are expected to bolster growth this year as energy prices trend higher. Business-friendly reforms in the private sector are poised to boost investment, although gains from diversifying the economy away from the energy sector are only likely to fully materialize over the medium term. Analysts expect growth of 5.9% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2019.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,258 | 7,958 | 6,450 | 6,701 | 6,632 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 38.9 | 43.5 | 35.9 | 37.8 | 37.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 10.2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -2.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 16.8 | 21.8 | 24.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 6.8 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 2.86 | 2.85 | 3.50 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -7.4 | -6.1 | -15.5 | -19.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.9 | -2.6 | -5.6 | -7.2 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 16.8 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 11.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 4.2 | -20.0 | -21.4 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 | -12.5 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jul 17 |
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