Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
February 4, 2019
A preliminary estimate put growth for 2018 at 6.2%, a tad below the previous year’s print (2017: +6.5% year-on-year), as high inflation seems to have moderated household spending. Nevertheless, sturdy industrial production and buoyant exports likely supported growth last year. Looking at Q1, the external sector appears to be benefiting from higher oil prices and renewed trade relations with Russia. In addition, on 31 January, Pakistani officials assured their commitment to begin construction works of their segment of the TAPI gas pipeline in March, which is slanted to come online in 2020 and should boost Turkmen exports.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
Growth is seen slowing this year, as the government slashes spending in its effort to transition to a more market-driven economy. That said, the external sector should hold up this year, amid higher Chinese demand for natural gas as the country moves away from coal. In addition, increased trade capacity via the TAPI gas pipeline is seen buttressing exports in the long-run. Our panel expects growth of 5.7% in 2019, unchanged last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2020.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,258 | 7,958 | 6,450 | 6,701 | 6,632 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 38.9 | 43.5 | 35.9 | 37.8 | 37.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 10.2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -2.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 16.8 | 21.8 | 24.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 6.8 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 2.86 | 2.85 | 3.50 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -7.4 | -6.1 | -15.5 | -19.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.9 | -2.6 | -5.6 | -7.2 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 16.8 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 11.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 4.2 | -20.0 | -21.4 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 | -12.5 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Mar 11 |
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