Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018
The economy appears to be growing at a healthy clip, with the latest government data showing strong activity in the January–September period buoyed by solid industrial output growth. In October, Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy company, announced it will resume importing natural gas from Turkmenistan next year after having suspended purchases in 2016 over pricing disputes. Moreover, the estimated costs for building the TAPI pipeline—which will supply Turkmenistan’s gas to India and Pakistan via Afghanistan—have reportedly been significantly reduced and funding nearly secured. Both developments bode well for diversifying the country’s gas sales which, until now, have been entirely directed to China.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
Growth is seen moderating slightly next year, although is set to remain strong nonetheless. Increased external demand for hydrocarbons is expected to drive higher production and exports. Meanwhile, major projects in the mining and chemical industries under the government’s 2018–2024 development plan should lend support to the non-hydrocarbon economy ahead. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth of 5.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,258 | 7,958 | 6,450 | 6,701 | 6,632 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 38.9 | 43.5 | 35.9 | 37.8 | 37.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 10.2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -2.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 16.8 | 21.8 | 24.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 6.8 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 2.86 | 2.85 | 3.50 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -7.4 | -6.1 | -15.5 | -19.1 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.9 | -2.6 | -5.6 | -7.2 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 16.8 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 11.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 4.2 | -20.0 | -21.4 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 | -12.5 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Dec 12 |
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