Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

According to official statistics, the economy expanded 6.3% last year, slightly up from 2018’s 6.2% upturn and thus remained one of the fastest growing countries in the region. Although a comprehensive breakdown is not yet available, robust activity in the industrial, trade, and transport and communications sectors likely buoyed overall growth. Moreover, exports seemingly gained momentum last year, amid growing trade links with neighboring countries. Turning to 2020, the economy likely got off to a slower start. Hydrocarbon shipments likely lost steam in the first quarter, as the coronavirus outbreak hampered demand in China—Turkmenistan’s largest export market. Meanwhile, as part of his privatization agenda, President Berdimuhamedov announced on 20 February the allocation of USD 2.3 billion to the private sector for the construction of the Ashgabat–Turkmenabat highway.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

The economy should sustain a solid rate of expansion in 2020, on the back of sustained activity in the hydrocarbon sector. That said, with the TAPI pipeline project now scheduled to be completed by 2023 instead of this year, merchandise export growth will likely slow. Our panel sees growth of 5.9% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.0% in 2021.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)5.55.65.65.75.8
GDP per capita (USD)7,9636,4336,4136,6427,064
GDP (USD bn)43.535.836.237.940.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.36.56.26.56.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.9-0.7-2.4-2.8-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.821.824.128.829.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.07.43.68.013.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.853.403.483.503.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.853.493.433.503.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-15.6-19.9-11.5-8.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-5.6-7.2-4.4-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.03.52.53.67.1
Exports (USD billion)11.49.67.87.69.6
Imports (USD billion)8.46.15.34.02.5
Exports (annual variation in %)3.5-15.3-18.6-2.525.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.9-27.3-13.2-24.5-36.9
External Debt (% of GDP)0.91.01.42.12.2

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Turkmenistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Jan 01

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