Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021Incoming data for the first eight months of 2021 is mixed. The economic panorama improved in early April amid the easing of restrictions, but recent customs data shows that exports to China receded by almost 4% in annual terms in January–August, boding ill for the external sector. Meanwhile, a reported rise in Covid-19 cases, albeit not supported by official sources, seemingly prompted authorities to tighten restrictions in mid-July and again in early August, which should be suppressing domestic activity in H2. That said, Fitch Ratings’ move in August to assign the country a credit rating should boost international investors’ confidence, potentially attracting foreign investment ahead. Moreover, reportedly higher gas production in January–August, combined with the recent spike in commodity prices in the world market, bodes well for exports ahead.
Turkmenistan Economic GrowthAfter a healthy expansion this year, activity should grow at a softer, albeit still-upbeat, pace in 2022. The economy should benefit from rising demand for energy exports, while large-scale infrastructure projects will attract investment. In turn, stronger exports may ease some downward pressure on the manat and relieve households’ finances, boding well for consumption. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 7.1% in 2021. For 2022, the panel projects GDP growth of 4.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.
Turkmenistan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||6,425||6,696||6,650||7,083||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||35.8||37.8||38.0||40.9||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.5||6.2||6.5||6.2||6.3|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.7||-2.4||-2.8||-0.2||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||21.8||24.1||28.8||29.1||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||7.4||3.6||8.0||13.2||13.4|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||3.40||3.50||3.50||3.50||3.50|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||3.49||3.43||3.50||3.50||3.50|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-15.6||-20.2||-10.4||5.5||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-5.6||-7.2||-4.4||-3.5||-3.0|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||3.5||2.7||3.6||7.2||6.8|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.6||7.9||7.6||9.6||9.7|
|Imports (USD billion)||6.1||5.3||4.0||2.4||2.9|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-15.2||-17.2||-4.1||25.9||1.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-27.3||-13.2||-24.5||-40.9||23.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||1.0||1.3||2.1||2.2||-|
5 years of Turkmenistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||3.50||0.01 %||Jan 01|
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