Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

According to official sources, the economy grew 6.4% in annual terms in the first 10 months of the year; transport and communication, and trade did the heavy lifting. Industrial exports also increased healthily according to official data. Moreover, the figures revealed that retail sales expanded robustly, likely linked to solid wage growth in the January–October period. In November, Dovranberdi Annaberdiev was appointed to the newly created Minister of Finance and Economy post to revamp the financial, economic and banking complex as Turkmenistan has come to terms with the new reality of lower oil and natural gas prices. In a recent staff visit, the IMF also highlighted the government’s efforts to reduce the current account deficit.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Ongoing reforms to reduce external imbalances and simplify administrative procedures should spur the private sector economy. The likely privatization of some enterprises should attract more foreign capital, further boosting the economy. Private consumption is, however, likely to be impacted by the government’s decision to abandon subsidies on certain goods. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 6.1% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points, and 5.9% in 2019.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)5.25.25.35.45.5
GDP per capita (USD)6,7877,4328,1876,7086,921
GDP (USD bn)35.138.943.536.137.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.110.210.36.56.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)7.51.50.9-0.7-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.122.118.019.423.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.36.86.07.43.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.852.852.853.403.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.852.853.493.43
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-7.4-6.4-14.0-20.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-2.9-2.8-5.1-7.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.66.87.26.2-  
Exports (USD billion)16.516.817.514.0-  
Imports (USD billion)9.910.010.37.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)26.91.84.2-20.0-  
Imports (annual variation in %)30.31.03.0-24.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.41.30.91.1-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Dec 06

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