Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Economic activity was likely robust in the first quarter of this year. A sustained year-on-year increase in foreign trade turnover in Q1, coupled with strong retail sales and productivity growth, points to healthy dynamics. On top of this, news reports show a robust annual expansion in the volume of loans in the quarter. That said, the war in Ukraine is seemingly taking its toll on the economy, through the country’s trade links with Russia as well as by weighing on tourist and remittance inflows. Meanwhile, in May the country took steps to improve its business climate by joining several UN agreements on international trade. Moreover, the government recently agreed to deepen investment ties with the U.S. as well as to strengthen ties with Iran in the gas industry, and transportation and railway connections.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
The economy should expand at a decent pace this year. Robust demand for oil and gas, amid elevated energy prices, will sustain hydrocarbon production. Additionally, agricultural production looks set to expand, while investment activity should be underpinned by large-scale infrastructure projects. That said, the Russia-Ukraine war poses downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 2.9% in 2022, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel projects GDP growth of 3.0%.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,425 | 6,696 | 6,650 | 7,083 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 40.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -0.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 24.1 | 28.8 | 29.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -15.6 | -20.2 | -10.4 | 5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -5.6 | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -15.2 | -17.2 | -4.1 | 25.9 | 1.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -27.3 | -13.2 | -24.5 | -40.9 | 23.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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