Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
According to the government, the economy expanded by 6.2% in 2022 as oil and gas revenues jumped by 80% in the year amid high energy prices, which likely increased investment and public spending in turn. Accelerations in services, retail trade and manufacturing activity also drove the expansion. Moreover, budgetary indicators painted an upbeat picture: In 2022, the country boasted its highest budget surplus since 2014 and saw its public debt fall to 6.1% of GDP at the end of the year. In other news, on 10 February, Fitch affirmed the country’s ‘B+’ rating, although it revised its outlook to positive from stable. Meanwhile, in January, Turkmenistan temporarily suspended gas exports to Uzbekistan and severely limited shipments to Kazakhstan and China due to extremely cold weather, likely decreasing government revenue in the first quarter.
Turkmenistan Inflation
According to the regional organization SESRIC, Turkmenistan’s inflation averaged 17.5% in 2022 (2021: 14.9%) due to stronger price pressures for energy and food imports. This year, price pressures should wane but stay in double digits. Commodity price surges, the possible end of state-administered prices and lower agricultural yields amid unfavorable weather pose upside risks.