Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
May 10, 2022
The economy likely performed relatively well in the first quarter of this year. Government figures show a strong increase in foreign trade turnover in Q1 compared to the same period of 2021, as well as sustained retail sales and productivity growth. Moreover, the volume of loans also expanded robustly in annual terms, according to news agencies. However, the economy has likely experienced some slowdown since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, due to its trade links with Russia and the tourism and remittances flows it receives from the country. That said, Turkmenistan could also stand to benefit as EU countries are considering the country as a potential gas provider as they aim to rely less on Russia. Meanwhile, the IMF recently announced that it will deliver technical assistance to reform the country’s budget and tax system.Turkmenistan Economic Growth
GDP is set to expand at a solid pace this year. Sustained demand for oil and gas, together with high energy prices, will buttress hydrocarbon production. Moreover, agricultural output should increase, while investment spending will be fueled by large-scale infrastructure projects. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a key downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 3.8% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel projects GDP growth of 3.8%.Turkmenistan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 6,425 | 6,696 | 6,650 | 7,083 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 40.9 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -0.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 24.1 | 28.8 | 29.1 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 13.4 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3.49 | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -15.6 | -20.2 | -10.4 | 5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -5.6 | -7.2 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -15.2 | -17.2 | -4.1 | 25.9 | 1.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -27.3 | -13.2 | -24.5 | -40.9 | 23.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - |
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Turkmenistan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3.50 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
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