Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

While official figures paint a rosy picture of the economy, international sources warn of a deepening crisis, owing to a chronic over-dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, as well as economic mismanagement and corruption. A dive in gas prices in 2014–2016, the halt of gas sales to Russia in 2016–2019 and continued weak agricultural production have landed the economy in a tough spot. Tight import controls aimed at shoring up the manat have resulted in widespread food shortages. This, coupled with the elimination of free utilities, have ramped up inflation and curtailed the availability of hard currency. Moreover, despite the resumption of gas exports to Russia in April last year, the suspension of gas sales to Iran over price disputes have weighed on export revenues. In politics, the president sacked his long-standing interior minister on 1 October for failure to tackle corruption and has launched an investigation into graft.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Economic conditions are set to remain challenging next year, with growth seen moderating slightly. Food scarcities will keep price pressures elevated, which will in turn continue to dent consumption and weigh on overall domestic demand. The external sector is also expected to remain downbeat. Primary risks to the outlook stem from low gas prices and a tough trade environment. Our panel expects growth of 5.8% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.7% in 2021.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,3057,9636,4336,4136,642
GDP (USD bn)39.243.535.836.237.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.210.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.4-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.128.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.68.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.3-6.1-15.6-20.2-10.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.3-3.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.03.03.52.43.0
Exports (USD billion)11.011.49.67.77.6
Imports (USD billion)8.08.46.15.34.6
Exports (annual variation in %)14.33.5-16.0-19.8-1.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.23.9-27.5-12.9-12.2
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.42.1

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Sep 04

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