Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Official sources reported a robust expansion in the first quarter of the year, with GDP growth coming in at 6.2% year-on-year. Seemingly, sturdy output at the all-important hydrocarbon sector and sustained export growth, buoyed by a higher-than-expected jump in oil prices, fueled the overall expansion. Unofficial sources, however, reported of high inflation and food shortages, which, if true, would have eaten into household spending. Meanwhile, on 17 May, officials announced another natural gas discovery in the Caspian region. This will further boost investment opportunities for the state-owned gas company, which is currently developing about 30 deposits that should ramp up production and boost exports in the near- to long-term.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Growth will likely decelerate this year on sluggish domestic demand. Private consumption will likely slow amid high inflation and higher-than-reported unemployment; unofficial sources suggest that 60% of the population is unemployed. The external sector, on the other hand, should benefit from exports of natural gas to Russia, which resumed in April after a three-year pause. Our panel expects growth of 6.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2020.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,2587,9586,4506,7016,632
GDP (USD bn)38.943.535.937.837.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.210.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.56.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.1-15.5-19.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.56.04.0-  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.011.0-  
Imports (USD billion)10.010.08.07.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-21.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.00.0-20.0-12.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.3-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Jun 13

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