Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

February 4, 2019

A preliminary estimate put growth for 2018 at 6.2%, a tad below the previous year’s print (2017: +6.5% year-on-year), as high inflation seems to have moderated household spending. Nevertheless, sturdy industrial production and buoyant exports likely supported growth last year. Looking at Q1, the external sector appears to be benefiting from higher oil prices and renewed trade relations with Russia. In addition, on 31 January, Pakistani officials assured their commitment to begin construction works of their segment of the TAPI gas pipeline in March, which is slanted to come online in 2020 and should boost Turkmen exports.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Growth is seen slowing this year, as the government slashes spending in its effort to transition to a more market-driven economy. That said, the external sector should hold up this year, amid higher Chinese demand for natural gas as the country moves away from coal. In addition, increased trade capacity via the TAPI gas pipeline is seen buttressing exports in the long-run. Our panel expects growth of 5.7% in 2019, unchanged last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2020.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,2587,9586,4506,7016,632
GDP (USD bn)38.943.535.937.837.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.210.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.56.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.1-15.5-19.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.56.04.0-  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.011.0-  
Imports (USD billion)10.010.08.07.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-21.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.00.0-20.0-12.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.3-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Mar 11

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