Sweden: CPIF inflation and core CPIF inflation dip in October

Consumer prices in Sweden declined 0.1% month-on-month in October, contrasting September’s 0.5% mom increase, according to data released by Statistics Sweden (SCB). October’s price fall was driven by lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages; communication; and recreation and culture.

The CPI with interest rates held constant (CPIF) inched down from 2.5% in September to 2.4% in October, within the Central Bank’s 1.0%–3.0% tolerance band but undershooting market expectations, while core CPIF inflation—which excludes volatile energy costs—dipped from 1.6% in September to 1.5% in October. CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.3% in October.

According to Jonas Goltermann, Developed Markets Economist at ING: “The key near-term question for the Riksbank is whether to hike interest rates in December or February. Today’s [inflation] figure shifts the likelihood towards February, as it suggests the Riksbank’s inflation forecast may need to be revised down yet again.”

Sweden Inflation Forecast

The Central Bank currently expects CPI inflation to average 2.6% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020. The Bank sees CPIF inflation averaging 2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect CPI inflation to average 2.0% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020.