Paraguay Economic Outlook

July 10, 2018

First-quarter growth came in at 4.1% year-on-year on the heels of the Central Bank’s base-year change, a sharp slowdown for the region’s star economy from last year’s investment- and export-led economic upturn. Household spending assumed the driver’s seat in the quarter, firming up on a solid expansion in the services sector. Moreover, investment took the backseat on poor outturns by the construction and manufacturing sectors. Externally, exports slowed from last year despite stronger agricultural output—likely due in part to economic turmoil across the region. Meanwhile, second-quarter prospects appear promising; economic activity has accelerated considerably in the seven months since last October, and trade flows have been strengthening since April.

Paraguay Economic Growth

Bumper agricultural output and heavy investment flows—notwithstanding a downbeat first quarter—are expected to support key export industries and sustain the economy’s momentum this year. Continued fiscal restraint should underpin investor confidence, although widespread poverty and corruption will remain major concerns. Analysts expect growth of 4.0% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	6.6	6.7	6.8	6.9	7.0
GDP per capita (USD)	4,422	4,636	4,034	3,992	4,233
GDP (USD bn)	29.0	30.9	27.3	27.4	29.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	14.0	4.7	3.0	4.0	4.3
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)	7.4	5.3	2.6	-	-
Consumption (annual variation in %)	4.5	3.8	1.9	0.9	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	11.9	8.8	2.0	7.9	11.5
Unemployment Rate	7.9	6.5	5.5	7.4	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.7	-1.1	-1.7	-1.5	-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	14.4	17.6	20.0	22.8	24.1
Money (annual variation in %)	17.5	7.8	5.8	8.1	16.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.8	4.2	3.1	3.9	4.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.7	5.0	3.1	4.1	3.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)	2.9	0.1	5.0	4.2	-
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	11.48	8.96	9.63	8.57	7.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	4,598	4,636	5,782	5,848	5,588
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	4,315	4,465	5,210	5,683	5,632
Current Account (% of GDP)	2.1	-0.2	-1.1	1.5	-1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.6	-0.1	-0.3	0.4	-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	1.7	1.0	0.6	1.4	0.6
Exports (USD billion)	13.6	13.1	10.9	11.2	12.1
Imports (USD billion)	11.9	12.1	10.3	9.8	11.5
Exports (annual variation in %)	16.7	-3.7	-16.6	2.1	8.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	7.8	1.1	-14.6	-5.1	17.7
International Reserves (USD)	5.9	6.9	6.2	7.1	6.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	54.2	53.4	59.2	59.6	-

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Paraguay Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	5,709	0.18 %	Jul 11

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