Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy bounced back in the third quarter of 2019, after contracting in the first half of the year. Quickening private consumption and a rebound in exports spearheaded the recovery. Turning to the fourth quarter of last year, growth seemingly sustained its momentum. Economic activity accelerated in October–November from Q3; private consumption likely benefited from low inflation, as hinted by upbeat retail sales in the quarter. That said, the external sector appeared to weigh on overall growth in Q4 given the plunge in merchandise exports amid declining sales of electricity and soybeans. In other news, the country signed a trade agreement with Brazil on 11 February. The deal removes excises for textiles and goods linked to the car industry and is seen boosting trade ahead.

Paraguay Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to gather momentum this year on broad-based improvements. Private consumption should pick up and fixed investment is seen recovering as supply shocks in the agriculture and utilities sectors subside. In addition, exports are seen rebounding as soy production recovers. Regional volatility and weather-related shocks cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 3.4% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2021.

Paraguay Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)6,0475,3485,2485,5965,743
GDP (USD bn)40.336.136.038.940.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)7.1-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate6.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-1.3-1.1-1.1-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)13.515.117.318.220.2
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)8.969.638.577.818.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,6365,7825,8485,5885,961
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,4655,2105,6835,6325,731
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.1-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.1-
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.7-15.37.911.93.2
Imports (annual variation in %)1.2-14.7-5.117.912.1
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)41.044.645.141.3-  

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Paraguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6,4530.18 %Jan 01

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