Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

The economy likely closed Q3 on a solid footing and is on track for a healthy rate of growth this year, according to the latest indicators. The monthly economic activity indictor showed that the economy continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month. The manufacturing, services and agricultural sectors led the way. Moreover, the business turnover estimate highlighted a robust domestic economy and posted a strong fifth consecutive monthly improvement in annual terms. The indicator showed that sales were up robustly in annual and year-to-date terms in September.

Paraguay Economic Growth

A robust domestic economy coupled with solid fixed investment growth is expected to propel economic growth next year. Prolonged political uncertainty in key trading partner Brazil and the renewal of the Itaipú Dam treaty could, however, drag on the economy. The FocusEconomics LatinFocus panel projects 3.9% GDP growth in 2018, up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)6.56.66.76.86.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,8044,4224,6364,0343,994
GDP (USD bn)24.629.030.927.327.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.314.64.63.04.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.97.45.31.7-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.53.81.90.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.711.98.82.06.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.08.210.3-  -  
Unemployment Rate4.95.06.05.57.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.514.417.619.721.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.617.57.85.88.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.03.84.23.13.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.72.75.03.14.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.22.90.15.04.2
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.1011.488.969.638.57
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,2534,5984,6365,7825,848
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,4284,3154,4655,2105,683
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.22.10.0-1.11.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.30.60.0-0.30.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.61.71.00.61.4
Exports (USD billion)11.713.613.110.911.1
Imports (USD billion)11.111.912.110.39.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.816.7-3.7-16.62.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.07.81.1-14.6-5.1
International Reserves (USD)5.05.96.96.27.1
External Debt (% of GDP)65.354.153.459.658.9

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5,6710.18 %Dec 06

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