Paraguay Economic Forecast

Paraguay Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

According to recent indicators, economic activity appears to have strengthened further in the final quarter of 2017, following an acceleration in Q3. The monthly indicator of economic activity showed that in November the economy continued to expand at a solid rate in annual terms, on the back of robust expansions in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Furthermore, the business turnover estimator for the same month indicated that sales increased at a double-digit rate from the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. Data for the external sector shows that healthy overseas demand drove exports to increase at a stellar rate in year-on-year terms throughout Q4, mainly benefiting from rising foreign orders of meat, electricity and soy.

Paraguay Economic Growth

This year, firming growth in Argentina and Brazil should support exports, while domestic demand will likely remain resilient. Moreover, solid fiscal parameters are expected to provide buffers against unforeseen shocks. FocusEconomics panelist project GDP growth of 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.9% in 2019.

Paraguay Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)6.56.66.76.86.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,8044,4224,6364,0343,994
GDP (USD bn)24.629.030.927.327.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.314.64.63.04.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.97.45.31.7-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.53.81.90.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-7.711.98.82.06.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.08.210.3-  -  
Unemployment Rate4.95.06.05.57.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.514.417.619.721.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.617.57.85.88.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.03.84.23.13.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.72.75.03.14.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.22.90.15.04.2
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.1011.488.969.638.57
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,2534,5984,6365,7825,848
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,4284,3154,4655,2105,683
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.22.10.0-1.11.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.30.60.0-0.30.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.61.71.00.61.4
Exports (USD billion)11.713.613.110.911.1
Imports (USD billion)11.111.912.110.39.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.816.7-3.7-16.62.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.07.81.1-14.6-5.1
International Reserves (USD)5.05.96.96.27.1
External Debt (% of GDP)65.354.153.459.658.9

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Paraguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate5,5830.18 %Feb 22

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