Norway: The economy slides into a contraction in November
January 9, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by Statistics Norway, total economic output fell 0.3% in November compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting October’s revised 1.1% increase (previously reported: +0.8% month-on-month). Meanwhile, in the September–November period, the total economy expanded 0.1% over the previous rolling quarter, down from 0.3% in the August–October period.
Mainland GDP—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction activity and related transport—was unchanged in November compared to the previous month, contrasting the revised 1.2% rise in October (previously reported: +1.0% month-on-month) but still higher than market analysts’ expectations given the strong reading in October. Mainland GDP rose 0.6% in September–November, up from 0.3% in August–October.
In November, private consumption rose 0.1% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in the prior month. Government consumption increased 0.1% also, markedly down from 0.8% in October. Fixed investment, meanwhile, had another bad month and declined 0.9% in November, although this was an improvement compared to October’s 2.6% contraction. The external sector had another month of weak trade figures in November: Exports of goods and services dropped 0.9%, which is a bigger drop than October’s 0.5% decrease, while imports slipped 1.6%, less than the 1.9% decrease in October.
Norway GDP Forecast
Norges Bank sees total GDP growth of 2.0% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panelists expect growth of 2.0%. In terms of mainland GDP, Norges Bank sees growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020. Our panelists forecast and expansion of 2.3% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.
Author: Edward Gardner, Economist