Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

July 23, 2019

Momentum likely moderated further in the second quarter, after cooling consumer spending caused the economy to decelerate in the first quarter. Data for April-May shows growth in tourist arrivals is gradually tapering off. Moreover, a sharper fall in industrial production in the same period and weaker business confidence in Q2 both point to downbeat investment activity. That said, data from consumer spending was more positive: In April-May, the unemployment rate was stuck at record lows, while growth in bank lending was extremely robust and consumer confidence revived in the quarter. Meanwhile, in mid-July, Moody's upgraded Malta's ratings to A2, while Fitch Ratings upgraded its outlook from stable to positive, citing the country’s impressive growth rate and solid fiscal position.

Malta Economic Growth

Growth is seen shifting into a lower gear in 2019, as private consumption moderates on slower job gains, while growth in the tourism sector softens. That said, the growth rate will remain elevated thanks to robust consumer spending and a surge in infrastructure expenditure. A hard Brexit, which threatens to hit the tourism sector, is the main downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 5.3% in 2019, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 4.3% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,92426,38724,50025,48927,739
GDP per capita (EUR)18,07119,83021,94822,98224,576
GDP (USD bn)10.111.310.811.512.8
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.710.311.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.710.85.66.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.55.12.43.5
Investment (annual variation in %)1.37.055.7-0.3-7.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.94.115.54.55.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.00.218.11.60.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.7-0.2-6.98.3
Unemployment Rate6.15.75.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.7-1.00.93.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.457.955.550.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.66.312.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.30.40.71.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.2-2.0-2.0-1.5

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.433.09 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate1.110.65 %Jul 31
Stock Market4,8470.36 %Jul 31

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