Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

Available indicators suggest momentum carried over into the third quarter, following an acceleration in growth in the second quarter fueled by upbeat consumer spending. Private consumption likely remained in the driver’s seat in Q3, thanks to surging tourist arrivals and further tightening of the labor market. On a less positive note, the fiscal surplus in the January–September period shrunk notably in annual terms, due to a sizable increase in spending. Moreover, in early November the European Commission ramped up a disciplinary procedure against the country and the European Central Bank withdrew the banking license of Pilatus Bank, over allegations of money laundering and fraud charges.

Malta Economic Growth

The economy should continue to grow at a strong pace next year, although is likely to soften. A tight labor market, a robust tourist sector and moderate inflation ought to buttress consumer spending, whereas fixed investment will be boosted by rising infrastructure spending. A hard Brexit and a marked slowdown in growth in the EU represent the main downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 4.5% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 3.9% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)10.111.310.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.510.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-3.21.2-3.4-1.94.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.433.09 %Dec 10
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Dec 10
Stock Market4,4470.36 %Dec 10

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