Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

Momentum seems to have moderated somewhat in Q1 and at the outset of Q2, on the heels of a strong economic performance last year. Growth in both tourist arrivals and expenditure cooled notably in January-March, while consumer confidence and business sentiment were much lower, on average, in January-April than in Q4 2018. In positive news, the unemployment rate remained at historically low levels in the first four months of 2019, while retail sales expanded at a healthy pace in Q1. On the fiscal front, the budget deficit was much higher in the first three months of 2019 than in the same period last year, as capital spending more than doubled and recurrent expenditure increased over 10%, while revenue also grew robustly—although at a slower pace than spending.

Malta Economic Growth

Growth is expected to slow this year, in tandem with the EU economy and on a softer expansion in the tourist sector. That said, solid wage growth will support consumer spending, while fixed investment should rebound thanks to strong public capital spending. The possibility of a hard Brexit clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 5.0% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 4.3% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)10.111.310.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.510.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.743.09 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market4,8280.36 %Jun 13

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