Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

The economy continued to accelerate rapidly in Q4 2018, powered by soaring consumer and government spending and despite the contraction in fixed investment. GDP expanded 7.2% annually in Q4, up a tad from Q3’s 7.1%; this brought full-year growth for 2018 to 6.6%, thus virtually matching 2017’s print. As underlined by the IMF in its February’s Article IV consultation, the country again grew at one of the fastest rates in the EU, thanks to surging domestic demand and a buoyant tourism sector. That said, the Fund also recommended upgrading the country’s infrastructure and cutting red tape for start-ups. Heading into 2019, good tourist and unemployment numbers in January suggest last year’s drivers of growth remained in place at the outset of the year.

Malta Economic Growth

Although robust domestic demand and strong services exports will fuel economic activity this year, GDP growth is expected to moderate as the EU economy slows down. Rising wages and growing tourist spending will power consumer expenditure, while fixed investment should rebound owing to public infrastructure projects and solid business investment. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 4.9% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 4.0% in 2020.

Malta Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)0.40.40.40.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)23,90126,24724,18225,13327,304
GDP per capita (EUR)18,06419,73721,67022,66024,187
GDP (USD bn)10.111.310.611.312.6
GDP (EUR bn)7.68.59.510.211.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.68.19.65.26.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.02.35.12.83.9
Investment (annual variation in %)1.36.856.81.7-7.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.93.23.54.54.3
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.0-0.27.11.5-0.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.7-5.76.0-4.43.9
Unemployment Rate6.45.85.44.74.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-1.8-1.11.03.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.463.858.756.250.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.00.41.21.01.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.00.81.20.91.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)2.03.13.76.411.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.80.50.81.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.1-1.1-1.8-1.9-1.6

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Malta Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.923.09 %Apr 18
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Apr 22
Stock Market4,7200.36 %Apr 18

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