Malta Economic Forecast

Malta Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

The economy rebounded in annual terms in Q2, as easing restrictions domestically and abroad spurred investment, household spending and exports. Activity has likely continued to recover in Q3, albeit at a more moderate pace. Low unemployment and sustained consumer confidence in July-August point to healthy consumer spending, while upbeat economic sentiment signals expanding private sector activity. Additionally, tourist numbers more than doubled over the previous year in July, although they were still over 50% down from 2019. Meanwhile, on 16 September the European Commission endorsed the country’s recovery plan—a necessary step to release EUR 316 million in grants. Moreover, on 17 September the IMF concluded its Article IV review and praised Malta’s swift Covid-19 response, although it warned against risks stemming from a prolonged placement on the Financial Action Task Force grey list.

Malta Economic Growth

The economy should expand robustly this year and next, as domestic demand revives amid unleashed pent-up spending, incoming EU funds and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, while a brighter international backdrop will boost tourist arrivals. That said, the possible spread of Covid-19 variants globally remains a key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 5.6% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Malta Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)0.40.50.50.50.5
GDP per capita (USD)24,50025,55627,78330,54630,536
GDP per capita (EUR)21,94823,04424,61326,05727,375
GDP (USD bn)10.811.512.814.514.8
GDP (EUR bn)9.710.411.312.413.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.95.86.57.34.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.02.63.37.82.9
Investment (annual variation in %)55.6-0.2-7.1-1.86.2
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)15.54.54.83.42.5
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)18.11.6-0.53.03.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-6.98.31.61.7
Unemployment Rate5.44.74.03.73.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.01.03.31.90.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)58.055.550.345.643.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.21.01.31.21.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.20.91.31.71.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.66.312.310.610.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.30.41.21.41.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.0-1.5-1.4-1.6

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Malta Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.433.09 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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