Japan Economic Outlook
March 26, 2019Despite a confirmed rebound in economic activity in the fourth quarter of last year, available data suggests that growth was weak in the first quarter of 2019. The average manufacturing PMI hit an over two-year low in Q1, as nominal exports contracted for the third consecutive month in February amid an economic slowdown in China. Moreover, consumer confidence deteriorated markedly at the outset of the year, which does not bode well for private consumption this year, while machinery orders—a leading indicator for investment in the coming three to six months—contracted for the third period in a row in January. In light of recent developments, the government downgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in three years on 20 March. This could prompt Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to take action ahead of the election in the upper house, which is to be held this July.
Japan Economic GrowthFrontloaded consumer spending ahead of the planned sales tax hike in October and a recovery in gross fixed investment—partially due to works related to the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games—will shore up economic growth this year. On the downside, the economy will feel the pinch of weak global demand, especially from China and Europe. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 0.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 0.6% in 2020.
Japan Economy Data
5 years of Japan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.03||-4.41 %||Apr 22|
|Exchange Rate||111.9||-0.35 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||22,218||0.40 %||Apr 22|
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Japan Economic News
April 26, 2019
Industrial production declined 0.9% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in March, contrasting February’s 0.7% increase.
April 25, 2019
At its 24–25 April meeting, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members decided to provide forward guidance on monetary policy for the first time ever.
April 23, 2019
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from March’s 49.2 (previously reported: 48.9) to 49.5 in April.
April 19, 2019
The core consumer price index was flat in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in March, coming in below February’s 0.1% increase.
April 17, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, following the 1.2% decrease in February.