Japan Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020
Available data points to an improving but still-subdued panorama in the third quarter, following the sharp contraction sustained by the economy in the second quarter. The unemployment rate hit an over three-year high in August, while consumer confidence remained mired in pessimism, despite improving to its best level since February, likely keeping a lid on the rebound in private consumption in the third quarter. Moreover, the much-studied Tankan business confidence survey for Q3 remained deeply negative, boding ill for capital spending in the period. Turning to Q4, the economy began the period on a muted footing, with the composite PMI remaining deep in contractionary territory in October. Moreover, the recent resurgence in cases abroad could weigh on the external sector in the months ahead.Japan Economic Growth
GDP is forecast to rebound in 2021 from the sharp downturn this year. Sustained government spending should bolster the recovery in domestic demand, while improving external demand should drive higher exports. However, persistent rates of new Covid-19 infections and a potential worsening of the China-U.S. trade conflict cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.7% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2022.Japan Economy Data
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Japan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | -0.02 | -4.41 % | Dec 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 108.7 | -0.35 % | Jan 01 |
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Japan Economic News
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Japan: Core consumer prices continue to fall in January
February 19, 2021
Core consumer prices increased 0.49% over the previous month in January, following December's flat result.
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Japan: Manufacturing and services PMIs diverge in February
February 19, 2021
The Jibun Bank Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which combines the PMIs of the services and manufacturing sectors—rose to 47.6 in February according to a flash reading, up slightly from January’s final figure of 47.1.
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Japan: Exports grow at a quicker pace in January
February 17, 2021
Yen-denominated merchandise exports jumped 6.4% year-on-year in January, hot on the heels of December’s 2.0% rise.
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Japan: Core machinery orders growth improves in December
February 17, 2021
Core machinery orders—which cover the private sector, exclude volatile orders and are a leading indicator for capital spending over the coming three-to-six-month period—grew 5.2% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in December, accelerating from November’s 1.5% increase.
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Japan: Economy slows in the final quarter; records worst annual contraction since 2009
February 15, 2021
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth slowed to 12.7% in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) in the fourth quarter, from 22.7% in the third quarter.
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