Japan Economic Outlook
September 28, 2021After detailed results showed the economy expanded at a faster rate than previously estimated in Q2, activity appears mild in Q3. The composite PMI fell in July and August as conditions soured amid a surge in Covid-19 cases through the summer months. Moreover, the extension of the state of emergency in several prefectures until the end of September has likely further suppressed activity. In politics, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on 3 September that he will not seek reelection at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election on 29 September, stepping down after just a year in office. Four candidates are currently in the running to take the reins, with polls indicating no outstanding favorite. Due to the LDP’s comfortable majority in parliament, the winner of that contest will very likely become the new PM and lead the party into general elections that must be held before 28 November.
Japan Economic GrowthThe economy is projected to rebound this year, and growth is set to accelerate marginally in 2022. An uptick in private consumption on the back of pent-up consumer demand, combined with higher capital spending, should outweigh a slowdown in fiscal stimulus. However, the ongoing pandemic and its impact on supply chains remains a key determinant of the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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Japan Economic News
September 24, 2021
Core consumer prices—which exclude fresh food—dropped 0.10% from the previous month in August, swinging from the 0.40% rise recorded in July.
September 24, 2021
The Jibun Bank Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—which combines the PMIs of the services and manufacturing sectors—rose to 47.7 in September according to a flash reading, up from August’s final figure of 45.5.
September 22, 2021
At its meeting ending on 22 September, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected by market analysts.
September 16, 2021
Yen-denominated merchandise exports rose 26.2% year-on-year in August, following July’s 37.0% jump.
September 15, 2021
Core machinery orders—which cover the private sector, exclude volatile orders and are a leading indicator for capital spending over the coming three-to-six-month period—grew 0.9% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in July, which contrasted June's 1.5% decrease.