Japan Economic Outlook
January 29, 2019
The economy likely rebounded in the fourth quarter following the third quarter’s dismal performance when a series of natural disasters severely disrupted economic activity. Industrial production was much stronger in October and November than the Q3 average, mainly due to solid domestic demand. Moreover, the unemployment rate likely remained at low levels in Q4, supporting private consumption. Looking forward, however, economic activity appears to be losing steam. The manufacturing PMI stalled in January, with new export orders dipping further as external demand started to falter. Moreover, Keidanren, Japan’s largest business organization, has not called for wage hikes this year as it did in 2018. This could compromise Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strategy of pinning hopes on strong consumption in order to ensure Japan doesn’t reexperience deflation.Japan Economic Growth
Although the economy will expand at a broadly similar pace this year as in 2018, risks are clearly skewed to the downside. A planned sales tax hike in October is expected to hit growth by the end of the year, while an uncertain global trade outlook will dent the all-important external sector. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 1.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 0.6% in 2020.Japan Economy Data
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Japan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | -0.01 | -4.41 % | Feb 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 110.5 | -0.35 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 21,140 | 0.40 % | Feb 14 |
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Japan Economic News
Japan: Economy returns to growth in Q4 but remains hampered by weak Asian demand
February 14, 2019
The economy rebounded in the last quarter of 2018, after a series of natural disasters and weak investment caused a contraction in the third quarter.
Japan: Industrial production contracts again in December
January 31, 2019
Industrial production declined 0.1% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in December, following November’s 1.0% contraction.
Japan: Consumer confidence eases to an over two-year low in January
January 30, 2019
Consumer sentiment fell from 42.7 in December to 41.9 in January, marking the lowest reading since December 2016.
Japan: Manufacturing sector stalls in January
January 24, 2019
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell sharply from December’s revised 52.6 (previously reported: 52.4) to 50.0 in January, the lowest print since October 2016.
Japan: Exports contract at fastest pace in over two years in December
January 23, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 3.8% year-on-year in December, contrasting the 0.1% increase in November.
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