India Trade Balance August 2020

India

India: Merchandise exports slide at sharper pace in August

September 15, 2020

Merchandise exports shrank 13.1% year-on-year in August (July: -10.2% year-on-year). Meanwhile, merchandise Imports plummeted 25.5% on an annual basis in August (July: -28.4% yoy).. As a result, merchandise trade balance deteriorated, recording a USD 6.8 billion shortfall in August (July: USD 4.8 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 100.7 billion deficit in August, compared to USD 107.4 billion deficit in July.

Commenting on August’s trade figures, analysts at Nomura, noted:

“The process of normalization in the external sector stalled in August. Compared with the pre-pandemic normal (average levels of exports and imports in Jan-Feb 2020), we estimate that exports fell to 84.5% of normal in August vs 93.3% in July, and surprisingly, despite the y-o-y improvement in import growth, it eased to 70.7% of normal in August, from 73% in July”

Our panelists forecast that exports and imports will decrease 14.3% and 24.0% in FY 2020, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 94.0 billion. In FY 2021, our panel projects exports and imports to increase 12.3% and 21.0%, respectively, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 128.0 billion.


Author:, Economist

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India Trade12m August 20 20

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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