Hungary: Second estimate confirms weaker growth in industrial production in September
November 13, 2018
According to revised data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on 13 November, industrial output rose a working-day adjusted 2.2% year-on-year in September. The print confirmed the preliminary estimate and came in below the 4.6% increase in August. September’s deceleration was due to notably softer growth in the manufacturing sector, which makes up over 90% of the index, which more than offset a rebound in energy production and a sharp acceleration in the growth of the mining and quarrying sector—which has significantly less influence on industrial output than the manufacturing sector.
In terms of sub-sectors, a slight contraction was recorded in the manufacture of transport equipment, which represents more than one-quarter of manufacturing output, as well as in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products. On the other hand, the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products; and of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products recorded healthy expansions. Meanwhile, in terms of sources of demand, domestic sales rose again at a solid pace, while exports sales continued to decline, likely negatively affected by weaker demand from Hungary’s main trading partner, Germany.
In month-on-month, seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, industrial production contracted 2.1%, contrasting August’s 3.9% jump.
Consequently, annual average growth in industrial production fell from August’s 4.7% to 4.3% in September.
Hungary Industrial Production Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 4.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, the panel expects industrial output to expand 3.9%.