Eurozone Economic Forecast

Eurozone Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

Comprehensive GDP data confirmed that the Eurozone’s recovery continued in the second quarter of 2017, supported by both robust domestic demand and the external sector. Positive tailwinds from a stronger labor market, upbeat sentiment and a healthier global backdrop led to buoyant growth in the quarter. Incoming data for Q3 points to a continuation of firm activity. Industrial production rebounded in July, economic sentiment rose to an over 10-year high in August and the composite PMI increased in September. However, the euro has appreciated notably this year and recent figures suggest that its strength could be taking a bite out of overseas sales: The trade surplus narrowed more than had been expected in July.

Eurozone Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)331331333334336
GDP per capita (EUR)29,75629,97930,43431,31832,003
GDP (EUR bn)9,8369,93210,13610,47410,745
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.9-0.21.21.91.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.61.21.92.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.2-0.50.81.82.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.3-2.51.53.23.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.92.24.46.23.0
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-0.61.44.96.34.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.3-0.70.82.11.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.4-0.61.53.12.2
Unemployment Rate11.412.011.610.910.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-3.0-2.6-2.1-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)89.591.492.090.389.2
Money (annual variation in %)3.00.45.0-  -  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)2.20.9-0.20.21.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.51.40.40.00.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.8-0.2-1.5-2.7-2.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.050.050.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)14.419.11.75.51.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.321.381.211.091.05
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.291.331.331.111.11
Current Account (% of GDP)1.42.22.53.23.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)138219250336373
Trade Balance (EUR billion)125207241350376

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Eurozone Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.180.21 %Oct 18
Stock Market1,2390.36 %Oct 18

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Eurozone Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

The FocusEconomics panel sees the Eurozone expanding a solid 2.1% this year as the economy fires on all cylinders. Next year, GDP is projected to grow at a solid, but more moderate, clip of 1.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. While lower unemployment will continue to support household consumption, a strong euro could weigh on export growth.

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