Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

? Recently-released GDP data revealed that growth slid in fiscal year 2017, which ended in July. Growth waned to 7.7% due to softer expansions in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, while mining activity contracted sharply. Foreign exchange rate shortages plagued dynamics, hampering several sectors, while government fiscal consolidation and soft commodities prices likely also played a role. In the political arena, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed continued to focus on opening the political space in recent weeks. Abiy appointed a new elections board chairperson at the end of November and met with opposition parties to discuss electoral reform ahead of the 2020 vote. Abiy has stated that the vote will be free, fair and transparent, after criticism over the last election and restrictions on civil society.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

? Growth is expected to pick up moderately in FY 2018 thanks to an improving business environment and abating political uncertainty. In addition, rising FDI and a booming air transportation sector should buttress activity. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 8.2% in FY 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.8% in FY 2019.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)640731807884-  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.410.48.010.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.9-2.4-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.854.055.056.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.121.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.110.06.713.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.410.17.39.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.4027.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.8-  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)2.53.23.43.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.327.828.6-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate28.240.01 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.40.0 %Dec 12

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