Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

August 25, 2020

Early prospects for the economy in the current fiscal year (8 July 2020–7 July 2021) are poor. Protests continued through mid-August amid lingering political unrest in the country, carrying over from the prior fiscal year and dragging on economic activity, which is further weighed on by elevated price pressures. Moreover, regional tensions continue to linger over the government’s intention to build a dam in the Nile river, further boding ill for activity in the first months of FY 2020. That said, the lifting of lockdowns abroad should be supporting the external sector somewhat. This follows a second half of FY 2019 (July 2019–July 2020) in which economic momentum was derailed by the locust plague and the Covid-19 pandemic, threatening food security and weighing heavily on the services and industrial sectors.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

The economy will be hit by the Covid-19 crisis and locust swarm in FY 2020. An intensification of the viral outbreak as well as food concerns cloud the outlook, while sizeable twin deficits and low international reserves pose additional risks. International support and the government’s reform agenda should, however, buttress activity somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.6% in FY 2020, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in FY 2021.

Ethiopia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.891.292.794.195.6
GDP per capita (USD)8288979101,021-  
GDP (USD bn)74.381.884.496.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.2-3.0-2.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.857.761.157.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)21.725.129.822.512.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.06.716.510.619.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.17.310.913.815.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.2622.4027.5828.2032.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.7621.9024.0727.6329.28
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.8-8.2-7.0-5.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.0-6.7-5.9-5.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.8-13.6-12.9-12.6-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)16.716.415.915.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.4-3.67.6-10.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-3.2-3.6-  
International Reserves (USD)  
External Debt (% of GDP)28.329.131.629.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate31.980.01 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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