Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The economy remains one of the fastest growing in the region, supported by a strong expansion in public infrastructure spending. Moreover, the country’s gradual integration into regional value chains is expanding productive capacity. Citing steady growth, on 20 October S&P Global Ratings affirmed Ethiopia’s credit rating at B/B. Nevertheless, the important role played by state-owned enterprises in the realization of infrastructure projects could result in inefficiencies. Furthermore, episodes of drought in Q3 have hit agriculture production, as evidenced by the rise in food prices registered in the last few months. On top of that, the country’s high external financing needs and bulky external debt could generate financial turbulence in the event of an external shock, especially if the gradual depreciation of the currency persists.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth will remain brisk going forward, helped by weather-related improvements in the agricultural sector and the scaling up of public capital outlays. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 7.3% in both FY 2017 and FY 2018.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)85.687.088.389.891.2
GDP per capita (USD)554640731807-  
GDP (USD bn)47.455.664.672.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.910.310.48.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.6-2.5-1.9-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.446.354.654.956.9
Money (annual variation in %)32.322.329.121.725.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)15.07.77.110.06.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)22.88.17.410.17.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)18.2719.0520.3321.2622.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)17.7818.7219.7220.7621.90
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-6.1-11.0-11.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-3.4-7.1-8.0-8.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-8.5-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6
Exports (USD billion)3.23.03.42.92.8
Imports (USD billion)11.812.115.416.716.4
Exports (annual variation in %)6.3-7.613.1-13.4-3.6
Imports (annual variation in %)41.22.627.28.8-1.9
International Reserves (USD)2.42.53.23.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.122.625.728.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate27.460.01 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.80.0 %Dec 06

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