Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

Midway through the second quarter of FY 2020 (8 July 2020–7 July 2021), the economic panorama remains grim. Restrictive measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus remain largely in place, with only some schools reopening in late October. As such, domestic demand is set to be dented in the quarter. Moreover, the armed conflict in the country’s Tigray region has intensified recently, further weighing on the domestic economy and sparking fears of civil war. Tensions on the external front also remain as a new round of talks with Egypt and Sudan conducted in early November failed to overcome differences over the Nile river dam dispute. Additionally, rising new Covid-19 cases globally will likely hamper the external sector and further weaken foreign demand, thereby dragging on the economy in the quarter.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to slow markedly in the current fiscal year due to the fallout from the pandemic and locust swarms, while intensifying domestic political tensions will further weigh on activity. Moreover, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside amid possible further waves of Covid-19 infections in the country and a sizable twin deficit. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 2.1% in FY 2020, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.7% in FY 2021.

Ethiopia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.891.292.794.195.6
GDP per capita (USD)8288979101,021-  
GDP (USD bn)74.381.884.496.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.010.17.79.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.2-3.0-2.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.857.761.157.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)21.725.129.822.512.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.06.716.510.619.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.17.310.913.815.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.2622.4027.5828.2032.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.7621.9024.0727.6329.28
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.8-8.2-7.0-5.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.0-6.7-5.9-5.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.8-13.6-12.9-12.6-  
Exports (USD billion)2.92.83.02.7-  
Imports (USD billion)16.716.415.915.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.4-3.67.6-10.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-3.2-3.6-  
International Reserves (USD)3.83.03.04.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)28.329.131.629.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate31.980.01 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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