Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

In early September the government announced it will partially open its logistics sector to foreign investors, another step towards the gradual opening of the economy to the private sector. Later in the month, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also announced China had agreed to restructure part of Ethiopia’s debt; this came after Ethiopia borrowed heavily from China to finance an ambitious infrastructure plan, causing government debt to balloon. Meanwhile, there are growing signs that the peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea is consolidating as demonstrated by the formal peace agreement signed by the two countries on 16 September. Recent economic data points to softer growth in FY 2017: Exports dipped, and investment projects declined in the third quarter of the fiscal year.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain robust, underpinned by improved business sentiment and rising exports. However, it will likely ease due to restrictions on foreign reserves and a moderation in the expansion of public investment. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 8.2% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 7.9% in FY 2019.

Ethiopia Economy Data

Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)640731807884-  
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.410.48.010.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-1.9-2.4-3.4-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.854.055.056.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.121.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.410.17.39.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.4027.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.8-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.6-  
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.9-  
International Reserves (USD)  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.625.327.828.6-  

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Ethiopia Facts

Exchange Rate27.800.01 %Oct 12
Stock Market0.20.0 %Oct 10

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