Ethiopia Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
Growth slowed in fiscal year 2017 but nevertheless remained quite robust. The expansion was supported by strong, albeit softening, growth in the manufacturing sector, as well as by robust growth in the services sector. In addition, the banking system remained in good shape, showing solid capitalization and good profitability. Mining activity fell considerably, however, while agricultural output recorded only a modest increase, weighed down by soft commodity prices and overseas sales. In the political arena, the government unveiled a plan at the end of December to improve the country’s business environment. The plan, which is part of the government’s reform drive to open up the economy, includes measures such as enhancing access to credit, revising trade laws and improving power supply.Ethiopia Economic Growth
In FY 2018, growth should strengthen somewhat, supported by robust infrastructure spending and an improving business climate on the back of the government’s economic reform plans. However, foreign exchange rate shortages could restrain growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 8.1% in FY 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.9% in FY 2019.Ethiopia Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 87.0 | 88.3 | 89.8 | 91.2 | 92.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 640 | 731 | 807 | 884 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 55.6 | 64.6 | 72.4 | 80.6 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 10.9 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.6 | -1.9 | -2.4 | -3.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 46.8 | 54.0 | 55.0 | 56.2 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 22.3 | 29.1 | 21.7 | 25.1 | 21.4 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 7.7 | 7.1 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 13.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.9 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 19.05 | 20.33 | 21.26 | 22.40 | 27.58 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 18.72 | 19.72 | 20.76 | 21.90 | 24.07 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.1 | -11.0 | -11.1 | -8.4 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.4 | -7.1 | -8.0 | -6.8 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -9.1 | -12.0 | -13.8 | -13.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 12.1 | 15.4 | 16.7 | 16.4 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -7.6 | 13.1 | -13.4 | -3.6 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 27.2 | 8.8 | -1.9 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 22.6 | 25.3 | 27.8 | 28.6 | - |
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Ethiopia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 28.57 | 0.01 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 30 |
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