Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

September 17, 2019

Activity is expected to have remained moderate at the end of FY 2018 and at the start of FY 2019. Exports dropped in the third quarter of FY 2018, widening the trade deficit. While electricity rationing from May-July disrupted economic activity. That said, robust infrastructure spending should keep growth among the fastest in the region. Moreover, the government’s ambitious reform drive should encourage investment and spur activity ahead. On 9 September, the government unveiled its latest reform and development blueprint, which focuses on improving key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. However, UN officials cautioned that the government should keep spending in check as public debt is projected to have hit a record high last year.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth is seen remaining strong this fiscal year thanks to the government’s reforms to encourage the private sector as well as robust public spending. However, security concerns, drought and the sustainability of government spending remain causes for concern. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 7.7% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in FY 2020.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)640731807884910
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.684.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.310.48.010.97.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.9-3.3-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.954.556.159.061.1
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.129.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.110.06.716.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.410.17.310.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.4027.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.3-7.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.7-5.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-12.9
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.83.0
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.415.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.67.6
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)2.43.53.83.03.0
External Debt (% of GDP)22.626.229.029.531.5

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate29.590.01 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.40.0 %Sep 04

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