Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

Economic growth was likely robust in H1 of FY 2019 (July 2019–July 2020), supported by strong export growth in July–September. However, the economy has since been derailed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the locust infestation. The global pandemic is weighing heavily on both the services and industrial sectors and seeing FDI dry up. Furthermore, the locust infestation is hitting the agricultural sector and threatens food security in the country, while drought and floods pose further risks; a potential famine would have a severe economic and humanitarian impact. At the end of April, the IMF approved USD 411 million in emergency assistance to combat Covid-19, while in May the World Bank offered USD 63 million to palliate the impact of the locust infestation. Moreover, the government recently announced extra fiscal support consisting of tax waivers for firms.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Economic growth will slow markedly in FY 2019 due to the double shock of the locust plague and Covid-19, weighing on foreign and domestic demand. Next fiscal year, the economy is seen decelerating further due to the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, while sizeable twin deficits and low international reserves pose further risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.8% in FY 2020, which is down 2.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in FY 2021.

Ethiopia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)89.891.292.794.195.6
GDP per capita (USD)8288979101,021-  
GDP (USD bn)74.381.884.496.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.010.17.79.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.2-3.0-2.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.857.761.157.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)21.725.129.822.512.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)10.06.716.510.619.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.17.310.913.815.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.2622.4027.5828.2032.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.7621.9024.0727.6329.28
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.8-8.2-7.0-5.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.0-6.7-5.9-5.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-13.8-13.6-12.9-12.6-  
Exports (USD billion)2.92.83.02.7-  
Imports (USD billion)16.716.415.915.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.4-3.67.6-10.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-3.2-3.6-  
International Reserves (USD)3.83.03.04.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)28.329.131.629.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate31.980.01 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.40.0 %Jan 07

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