Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

November 12, 2019

The economy is expected to have grown at a steady clip in the 2018–2019 fiscal year, which ended in July. Solid public infrastructure spending likely kept activity healthy, despite electricity rationing and foreign exchange shortages hampering momentum. Turning to the current fiscal year, data is scarce although headwinds are likely restraining growth. Particularly, the critical agricultural sector remains hampered by ongoing drought as well as a locus invasion in certain parts of the country, which is worsening food shortages, fueling inflation and likely weighing on government finances. Meanwhile, on the political front, the government unveiled an ambitious jobs creation plan in late October, aimed at creating 20 million new jobs by 2025, partly through increasing the country’s private sector.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

Growth is seen moderating ahead, although still remaining strong thanks to infrastructure and development spending, as well as progress on opening up the economy. That said, Ethiopia is facing many challenges, especially related to risks from weather and low government finances. In addition, a election next year could stoke ethnic tension and security concerns linger. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 7.6% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in FY 2020.

Ethiopia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)87.088.389.891.292.7
GDP per capita (USD)640731807884910
GDP (USD bn)55.664.672.480.684.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.310.48.010.97.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.9-3.3-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.954.556.159.061.1
Money (annual variation in %)22.329.121.725.129.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.77.110.06.716.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.17.410.17.310.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.0520.3321.2622.4027.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)18.7219.7220.7621.9024.07
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-11.0-11.1-8.3-7.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.4-7.1-8.0-6.7-5.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6-12.9
Exports (USD billion)3.03.42.92.83.0
Imports (USD billion)12.115.416.716.415.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.613.1-13.4-3.67.6
Imports (annual variation in %)2.627.28.8-1.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)2.43.53.83.03.0
External Debt (% of GDP)22.626.229.029.531.5

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Ethiopia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate29.590.01 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.40.0 %Sep 04

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