Ethiopia Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022
Ethiopia’s economic backdrop remains challenging, but recent developments offer a glimmer of hope. Following various economic liberalization efforts, plans to launch a new stock exchange were unveiled in May. A joint venture between the Ministry of Finance, Ethiopian Investment Holdings and financial services firm FSD Africa, the Ethiopian Securities Exchange will initially list shares in 50 local companies. This will provide local businesses with better access to capital, facilitate the privatization of state-owned firms and make it easier for the government to issue bonds. Meanwhile, the end may be in sight for the conflict with the Tigray rebels; in mid-June, the government formed a committee to negotiate with them. However, the conflict with the Fano militants in the Amhara region seems further removed from resolution.Ethiopia Economic Growth
Economic growth should remain relatively stable in FY 2022 (8 July 2022–7 July 2023). The impact of Covid-19 will fade, which should support household consumption and business activity and boost fixed investment. That said, lingering ethnic, religious and separatist tensions could undermine investor sentiment, despite liberalization efforts. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.5% in FY 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% in FY 2023.Ethiopia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 89.8 | 91.2 | 92.7 | 94.1 | 95.6 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 828 | 897 | 910 | 1,021 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 74.3 | 81.8 | 84.4 | 96.1 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -2.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 57.7 | 61.1 | 57.6 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 21.7 | 25.1 | 29.8 | 22.5 | 12.4 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 10.0 | 6.7 | 16.5 | 10.6 | 19.5 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 10.1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 21.26 | 22.40 | 27.58 | 28.20 | 32.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 20.76 | 21.90 | 24.07 | 27.63 | 29.28 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.8 | -8.2 | -7.0 | -5.3 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -8.0 | -6.7 | -5.9 | -5.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -13.8 | -13.6 | -12.9 | -12.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 16.7 | 16.4 | 15.9 | 15.3 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -13.4 | -3.6 | 7.6 | -10.7 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 8.8 | -1.8 | -3.2 | -3.6 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 28.3 | 29.1 | 31.6 | 29.2 | - |
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Ethiopia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 31.98 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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