Ethiopia Economic Outlook
October 19, 2021A high Covid-19 case count and escalating domestic instability suggest that the economy remains in the doldrums in Q2 FY 2021 (8 July 2021–7 July 2022). Covid-19 restrictions have been left largely unchanged at the outset of the quarter, likely subduing activity. Meanwhile, in early October, the government launched a major offensive against Tigray rebels and expelled UN officials on allegations of supporting Tigray forces, triggering a backlash from the international community and raising the risk of further sanctions, particularly from the U.S. In politics, Abiy Ahmed was sworn in as prime minister for a second five-year term on 4 October, after the delayed vote took place in three regions—Ahmed had already won 410 out of 436 parliamentary seats in the June elections.
Ethiopia Economic GrowthGDP is expected to grow at a quicker pace this fiscal year (8 July 2021–7 July 2022) as the reopening of economies releases pent-up demand and supports the external sector. However, risks are heavily skewed to the downside: Rising public debt levels, protracted instability and high susceptibility to Covid-19 flare-ups due to a low vaccination rate all cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 6.5% in FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in FY 2022.
Ethiopia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||828||897||910||1,021||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||74.3||81.8||84.4||96.1||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.0||10.1||7.7||9.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-2.3||-3.2||-3.0||-2.5||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||55.8||57.7||61.1||57.6||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||21.7||25.1||29.8||22.5||12.4|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||10.0||6.7||16.5||10.6||19.5|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||10.1||7.3||10.9||13.8||15.8|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||21.26||22.40||27.58||28.20||32.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||20.76||21.90||24.07||27.63||29.28|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-10.8||-8.2||-7.0||-5.3||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-8.0||-6.7||-5.9||-5.1||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-13.8||-13.6||-12.9||-12.6||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||2.9||2.8||3.0||2.7||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||16.7||16.4||15.9||15.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-13.4||-3.6||7.6||-10.7||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||8.8||-1.8||-3.2||-3.6||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||3.8||3.0||3.0||4.0||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||28.3||29.1||31.6||29.2||-|
5 years of Ethiopia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||31.98||0.01 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.4||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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