Ethiopia Economic Forecast

Ethiopia Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

In a bid to cool mass unrest and open the way for economic reforms, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his resignation on 15 February. However, the following day the authoritarian government declared a six-month state of emergency, a move designed to extend the governing coalition’s grip on power. During the state of emergency protests will be banned, and Hailemariam Desalegn will remain prime minister until his successor is elected by the parliament. This comes following the release of thousands of political prisoners since January, in a failed attempt to reduce political and ethnic tensions. Although GDP grew over 10% in FY 2016—which runs from July 2016 to July 2017—the economy’s external imbalances and dropping reserve levels pose sizeable risks to growth.

Ethiopia Economic Growth

The economy should expand robustly in FY 2017, as ongoing public infrastructure spending and FDI inflows support the industrial sector, and agricultural output continues to recover. However, political instability and social unrest could cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 8.2% in FY 2017, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.7% in FY 2018.

Ethiopia Economy Data

Population (million)85.687.088.389.891.2
GDP per capita (USD)554640731807-  
GDP (USD bn)47.455.664.672.4-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.910.310.48.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.6-2.5-1.9-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.446.354.654.956.9
Money (annual variation in %)32.322.329.121.725.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)18.2719.0520.3321.2622.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)17.7818.7219.7220.7621.90
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-6.1-11.0-11.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.8-3.4-7.1-8.0-8.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-8.5-9.1-12.0-13.8-13.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)11.812.115.416.716.4
Exports (annual variation in %)6.3-7.613.1-13.4-3.6
Imports (annual variation in %)41.22.627.28.8-1.9
International Reserves (USD)  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.122.625.728.2-  

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Ethiopia Facts

Exchange Rate27.420.01 %Mar 15
Stock Market0.80.0 %Mar 08

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