Ethiopia Economic Outlook
October 19, 2021
A high Covid-19 case count and escalating domestic instability suggest that the economy remains in the doldrums in Q2 FY 2021 (8 July 2021–7 July 2022). Covid-19 restrictions have been left largely unchanged at the outset of the quarter, likely subduing activity. Meanwhile, in early October, the government launched a major offensive against Tigray rebels and expelled UN officials on allegations of supporting Tigray forces, triggering a backlash from the international community and raising the risk of further sanctions, particularly from the U.S. In politics, Abiy Ahmed was sworn in as prime minister for a second five-year term on 4 October, after the delayed vote took place in three regions—Ahmed had already won 410 out of 436 parliamentary seats in the June elections.Ethiopia Economic Growth
GDP is expected to grow at a quicker pace this fiscal year (8 July 2021–7 July 2022) as the reopening of economies releases pent-up demand and supports the external sector. However, risks are heavily skewed to the downside: Rising public debt levels, protracted instability and high susceptibility to Covid-19 flare-ups due to a low vaccination rate all cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 6.5% in FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in FY 2022.Ethiopia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 89.8 | 91.2 | 92.7 | 94.1 | 95.6 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 828 | 897 | 910 | 1,021 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 74.3 | 81.8 | 84.4 | 96.1 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -2.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 57.7 | 61.1 | 57.6 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 21.7 | 25.1 | 29.8 | 22.5 | 12.4 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 10.0 | 6.7 | 16.5 | 10.6 | 19.5 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 10.1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 21.26 | 22.40 | 27.58 | 28.20 | 32.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 20.76 | 21.90 | 24.07 | 27.63 | 29.28 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.8 | -8.2 | -7.0 | -5.3 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -8.0 | -6.7 | -5.9 | -5.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -13.8 | -13.6 | -12.9 | -12.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 16.7 | 16.4 | 15.9 | 15.3 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -13.4 | -3.6 | 7.6 | -10.7 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 8.8 | -1.8 | -3.2 | -3.6 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 28.3 | 29.1 | 31.6 | 29.2 | - |
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Ethiopia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 31.98 | 0.01 % | Jan 01 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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