Bolivia Economic Outlook

December 4, 2018

Available data points to sustained growth momentum in the third quarter, following a robust outturn in the second quarter powered by solid private consumption and buoyant exports. Broadly stable inflows of remittances in Q3, with the majority sent from Spain and the U.S., alongside moderating inflation and healthy growth of private sector credit, likely supported household incomes and thus consumer spending in the quarter. Meanwhile, on the external front, the firm growth of export earnings in Q3, mainly due to increased prices for natural gas, contributed to a sharp reduction of the January–September trade deficit year-on-year.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain among the strongest in the region in 2019. Sustained high levels of public investment and sturdy household consumption—aided by under-control inflation, currency stability and rising wages—should propel the economy ahead. A favorable price outlook for hydrocarbons and minerals should also contribute in reducing fiscal and external imbalances. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.4% in 2019, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.9	11.1
GDP per capita (USD)	2,948	3,124	3,086	3,114	3,388
GDP (USD bn)	30.7	33.0	33.1	33.9	37.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	6.8	5.5	4.9	4.3	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.4	5.6	5.8	3.1	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	11.7	9.9	5.0	3.4	11.8
Unemployment Rate	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.7	-3.4	-6.9	-6.6	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	36.1	37.0	40.6	46.2	-
Money (annual variation in %)	17.7	17.1	16.3	-3.9	8.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	6.5	5.2	3.0	4.0	2.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	5.8	4.1	3.6	2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	11.41	8.00	7.36	7.82	7.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.91	6.91	6.90	6.94	6.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.96	6.91	6.90	6.91	6.95
Current Account (% of GDP)	2.4	1.7	-5.8	-5.7	-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.7	0.6	-1.9	-1.9	-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	2.5	2.1	-1.2	-1.5	-1.6
Exports (USD billion)	12.2	12.8	8.7	7.0	7.8
Imports (USD billion)	9.7	10.7	9.8	8.5	9.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	3.6	5.4	-32.2	-19.4	10.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	12.9	10.1	-7.8	-13.5	9.3
International Reserves (USD)	12.5	13.2	11.4	8.3	8.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	26.7	27.0	30.0	32.5	-

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Bolivia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.94	-0.14 %	Dec 11

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