Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

September 15, 2020

The economy will have contracted in the second quarter on the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic, after growth stalled to its slowest pace since 2001 in the first quarter. Economic activity nosedived in Q2, while merchandise exports collapsed by nearly half amid a suppressed global trading environment. Moreover, the unemployment rate surged in the same period and inflows of remittances contracted by nearly a half, boding poorly for household spending. Turning to Q3, while merchandise exports continued to fall in July, the authorities announced the easing of quarantine measures on 1 September, allowing industrial, commercial and mining activities to resume. Meanwhile, in politics, on 7 September, former President Evo Morales was barred from running for Senate in the 18 October elections after a judge rejected his appeal, thus upholding the ruling made by the electoral tribunal in February.

Bolivia Economic Growth

GDP will shrink for the first time in more than three decades this year due to the pandemic. A climbing unemployment rate and falling remittances will constrain private consumption, while weak global demand and muted energy prices will squeeze exports. The public health crisis and a deeply polarized political environment pose further threats to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 7.0% in 2020, which is down 1.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 4.5% in 2021.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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