Bolivia Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

Available data points to sustained momentum in the second half of 2018. Exports rebounded strongly in October and a jump in natural gas prices at year-end likely buttressed gains further. In addition, subdued inflation is seen supporting private consumption, although remittance inflows have weakened after posting a record high in the first half of the year. That said, this year’s external backdrop looks more challenging, while officials need to renegotiate trade deals with Brazil and Argentina at a time when growing global supply of LNG is containing prices. This hurdle further adds to the troubles of President Evo Morales, who is struggling to alleviate the country’s fiscal woes in the run-up to October’s presidential election.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Looking ahead, growth should remain among the fastest in the region this year nonetheless, fueled by resilient domestic activity. Under control inflation and accommodative polices are seen aiding household spending in the near-term. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.2% in 2019, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.9	11.1
GDP per capita (USD)	2,948	3,124	3,086	3,114	3,388
GDP (USD bn)	30.7	33.0	33.1	33.9	37.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	6.8	5.5	4.9	4.3	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.4	5.6	5.8	3.1	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	11.7	9.9	5.0	3.4	11.8
Unemployment Rate	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.7	-3.4	-6.9	-6.6	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	36.1	37.0	40.6	46.2	-
Money (annual variation in %)	17.7	17.1	16.3	-3.9	8.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	6.5	5.2	3.0	4.0	2.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	5.8	4.1	3.6	2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	11.41	8.00	7.36	7.82	7.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.91	6.91	6.90	6.94	6.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.96	6.91	6.90	6.91	6.95
Current Account (% of GDP)	2.4	1.7	-5.8	-5.7	-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.7	0.6	-1.9	-1.9	-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	2.5	2.1	-1.2	-1.5	-1.6
Exports (USD billion)	12.2	12.8	8.7	7.0	7.8
Imports (USD billion)	9.7	10.7	9.8	8.5	9.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	3.6	5.4	-32.2	-19.4	10.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	12.9	10.1	-7.8	-13.5	9.3
International Reserves (USD)	12.5	13.2	11.4	8.3	8.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	26.7	27.0	30.0	32.5	-

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Bolivia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.94	-0.14 %	Feb 20

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