Bolivia Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

Economic growth slumped to 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019 (Q2: +2.8% year-on-year), marking the weakest expansion in over a decade. A sharp contraction of the mining and quarrying sector, which saw output in the key oil and gas industry decline for the sixth consecutive quarter, led the slowdown. In turn, this took a toll on the external sector, as reflected by yet another fall in exports in the quarter. Domestically, although fixed investment rebounded solidly, private consumption growth, which has long been the engine of activity, ebbed to a two-and-a-half-year low—weighing on the overall upturn. Meanwhile in politics, Luis Arce, former President Evo Morales’ economy minister and candidate for his Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, is leading the polls ahead of the 3 May election against a divided opposition, which includes the candidacy of interim President Jeanine Áñez. However, Arce’s lead is not large enough to avoid a second run-off vote.

Bolivia Economic Growth

The economy is poised to maintain a solid pace of expansion this year, buttressed by robust household spending and a recovery in exports. That said, subdued foreign demand for natural gas, political and policy uncertainty, declining international reserves and the country’s large twin deficits are key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 3.1% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% again in 2021.

Bolivia Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	10.6	10.9	11.0	11.2	11.4
GDP per capita (USD)	3,124	3,037	3,084	3,345	3,540
GDP (USD bn)	33.0	33.1	34.1	37.5	40.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.5	4.9	4.3	4.2	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	5.6	5.8	3.1	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	9.9	5.0	3.4	11.8	3.2
Unemployment Rate	3.5	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-3.4	-6.9	-7.2	-7.8	-8.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	38.0	40.9	46.5	51.3	53.9
Money (annual variation in %)	17.1	16.3	-3.9	8.2	5.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.2	3.0	4.0	2.7	1.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	4.1	3.6	2.8	2.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	8.00	8.07	7.95	8.11	8.04
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.91	6.90	6.93	6.91	6.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.91	6.90	6.91	6.91	6.91
Current Account (% of GDP)	1.7	-5.8	-5.6	-4.8	-4.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.6	-1.9	-1.9	-1.8	-1.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	2.9	-0.4	-0.9	-0.5	-0.5
Exports (USD billion)	12.8	8.7	7.0	8.1	8.9
Imports (USD billion)	9.9	9.1	7.9	8.6	9.4
Exports (annual variation in %)	5.4	-32.2	-19.0	15.3	9.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	9.5	-8.3	-12.6	8.7	8.5
International Reserves (USD)	13.2	11.6	8.5	8.5	7.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	26.9	29.9	32.3	34.6	33.0

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Bolivia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.91	-0.14 %	Jan 01

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