Bolivia Economic Outlook

August 6, 2019

Data for the first quarter of the year paints a mixed economic picture, after growth softened in Q4 2018. On the one hand, remittances declined significantly year-on-year throughout the quarter, which will have weighed on private consumption. In addition, merchandise exports also fell due to lower minerals and gas shipments, while imports increased, weighing on headline growth and the trade deficit. On the other hand, the minister of economy recently declared that, aside from the hydrocarbon industry, sectoral economic data indicated growth remained robust. In other news, state oil firm YPFB recently closed large long-term contracts to supply natural gas to a major fertilizer producer and thermoelectric plant in Brazil. The firm is also reportedly planning to acquire a larger stake in the Bolivia-Brazil Gasbol pipeline from Petrobras.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Although growth looks set to slow this year as a regional slowdown dampens the external sector, Bolivia should remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, underpinned by solid domestic demand. A widening of the country’s fiscal deficit ahead of October’s presidential election poses a key downside to the outlook, however. Our panel expects the economy to expand 4.0% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.9	11.1
GDP per capita (USD)	2,948	3,124	3,086	3,126	3,388
GDP (USD bn)	30.7	33.0	33.1	34.1	37.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	6.8	5.5	4.9	4.3	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.4	5.6	5.8	3.1	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	11.7	9.9	5.0	3.4	11.8
Unemployment Rate	4.0	3.5	4.4	4.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.6	-3.4	-6.9	-7.2	-7.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	37.1	38.0	41.3	46.6	50.9
Money (annual variation in %)	17.7	17.1	16.3	-3.9	8.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	6.5	5.2	3.0	4.0	2.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	5.8	4.1	3.6	2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	11.41	8.00	7.36	7.82	7.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.91	6.91	6.90	6.94	6.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.96	6.91	6.90	6.91	6.95
Current Account (% of GDP)	2.4	1.7	-5.8	-5.6	-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.7	0.6	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	3.1	2.9	-0.4	-0.9	-0.5
Exports (USD billion)	12.2	12.8	8.7	7.0	8.1
Imports (USD billion)	9.0	9.9	9.1	7.9	8.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	3.6	5.4	-32.2	-19.0	15.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	13.3	9.5	-8.3	-12.6	8.7
International Reserves (USD)	12.5	13.2	11.4	8.3	8.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	26.6	26.9	29.9	32.3	34.6

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Bolivia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.92	-0.14 %	Jul 31

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