Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

Conditions likely continued to improve in H2, albeit at a more moderate pace, following Q2’s stellar GDP growth. Total remittances up to October were nearly 30% higher than in the same period in 2020, bringing inflows to a historic high. Meanwhile, growth in merchandise exports and imports moderated but remained robust in annual terms in July–October, suggesting solid demand dynamics. Moreover, the unemployment rate remained at October’s 20-month low in November, which, coupled with still-robust remittances, bodes well for spending at the tail end of the year. Meanwhile, following a sharp increase in infection rates, authorities announced that it will be mandatory to show a Covid-19 vaccination card or a negative PCR test to access public and some private institutions, starting from 1 January. The measure has been delayed to 26 January due to social unrest and an overwhelming increase in demand for the vaccine.

Bolivia Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to soften this year, largely due to a tougher base of comparison. Still, robust private, government and capital spending will sustain activity. Risks to the outlook remain, including dwindling international reserves and a larger fiscal deficit resulting from the pandemic. Moreover, slow fiscal consolidation questions the feasibility of the currency’s peg. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.4% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2023.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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