Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

In late November, the Constitutional Court cleared the way for Evo Morales to seek a fourth consecutive term, even though his proposal to remove term limits was rejected by most Bolivians in last year’s referendum. During Morales’ rule, Bolivia has seen its economic fortunes turned around on the back of a boom in natural gas production. On 28 November, the government presented the 2018 budget; it includes higher subsidies for hydrocarbons and increased natural gas production to keep growth rates afloat. Also in November, the government signed natural gas exploration and production agreements with three multinationals, boding well for investment in the sector and future output.

Bolivia Economic Growth

GDP growth next year should be buttressed by robust private and public consumption. A slowdown in hydrocarbon exports, as demand from Argentina and Brazil decreases, poses a downside risk, however. A possible flareup in political unrest in the build up to the 2019 elections could also drag on the economy. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month, and also in 2019.

Bolivia Economy Data

Population (million)10.210.410.610.710.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,6452,9483,1243,086-  
GDP (USD bn)27.130.733.033.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)2.511.79.95.0-  
Unemployment Rate3.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.80.7-3.4-6.9-6.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.736.137.040.642.1
Money (annual variation in %)20.217.717.116.3-3.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.6011.418.007.367.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.016.916.916.906.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.996.966.916.906.91
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)  
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)8.69.710.79.88.5
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)8.212.910.1-8.5-12.8
International Reserves (USD)11.412.513.211.48.3
External Debt (% of GDP)24.326.326.629.8-  

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Bolivia Facts

Exchange Rate6.97-0.14 %Dec 06

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