Bolivia Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020GDP shrank at a record annual pace of 21.7% in Q2 (Q1: +0.6% yoy) amid plunging domestic demand and collapsing exports due to the Covid-19 fallout. Turning to Q3, available data paints a still-downbeat picture. Economic activity contracted more sharply in August, with the construction, transport and mining sectors hit the hardest. Moreover, a higher unemployment rate in Q3, coupled with lingering Covid-19 restrictions, bodes ill for private consumption. In politics, Luis Arce, the candidate for former President Morales’ MAS party, won 55% of the votes in the presidential election re-run held on 18 October, securing a first-round victory. However, MAS did not reach a two-third majority in the Legislative Assembly, which could hinder the full implementation of Arce’s agenda of boosting public investment. In the near term, dealing with the impact of the pandemic will likely be his first priority.
Bolivia Economic GrowthGDP is seen contracting for the first time in decades this year, before returning to growth in 2021. Firming foreign demand will bolster the external sector, while household spending is expected to bounce back in line with the economic recovery. The unpredictable course of the pandemic and the country’s increasing public debt, however, are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.4% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022 our panel sees GDP growth at 3.1%.
Bolivia Economy Data
5 years of Bolivia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||6.91||-0.14 %||Jan 01|
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