Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

GDP shrank at a record annual pace of 21.7% in Q2 (Q1: +0.6% yoy) amid plunging domestic demand and collapsing exports due to the Covid-19 fallout. Turning to Q3, available data paints a still-downbeat picture. Economic activity contracted more sharply in August, with the construction, transport and mining sectors hit the hardest. Moreover, a higher unemployment rate in Q3, coupled with lingering Covid-19 restrictions, bodes ill for private consumption. In politics, Luis Arce, the candidate for former President Morales’ MAS party, won 55% of the votes in the presidential election re-run held on 18 October, securing a first-round victory. However, MAS did not reach a two-third majority in the Legislative Assembly, which could hinder the full implementation of Arce’s agenda of boosting public investment. In the near term, dealing with the impact of the pandemic will likely be his first priority.

Bolivia Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting for the first time in decades this year, before returning to growth in 2021. Firming foreign demand will bolster the external sector, while household spending is expected to bounce back in line with the economic recovery. The unpredictable course of the pandemic and the country’s increasing public debt, however, are key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.4% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022 our panel sees GDP growth at 3.1%.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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