Bolivia Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

The latest data suggests the economy maintained a strong pace in the second half of 2018, fueled by resilient household spending, as reduced inflation and a stable inflow of remittances likely benefited consumers in the last two quarters. Moreover, a year-end surge in natural gas prices is seen bolstering exports gains. On the political front, policymakers slashed government spending in the second half of 2018 as part of efforts to curtail the fiscal deficit; spending could ramp-up, however, in the run-up to October’s presidential election as President Evo Morales seeks a fourth term.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Growth is set to remain among the fastest in the region in 2019, supported by solid domestic dynamics and despite cooling external gains. Household spending is seen underpinning momentum, amid rising wages, sustained remittances and currency stability. In less positive news, exports are expected to decelerate in the beginning of the year, amid the subsequent retreat of natural gas prices after a late-year soar. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 4.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in 2020.

Bolivia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.9	11.1
GDP per capita (USD)	2,948	3,124	3,086	3,114	3,388
GDP (USD bn)	30.7	33.0	33.1	33.9	37.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	6.8	5.5	4.9	4.3	4.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.4	5.6	5.8	3.1	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	11.7	9.9	5.0	3.4	11.8
Unemployment Rate	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.7	-3.4	-6.9	-6.6	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	36.1	37.0	40.6	46.2	-
Money (annual variation in %)	17.7	17.1	16.3	-3.9	8.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	6.5	5.2	3.0	4.0	2.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	5.8	4.1	3.6	2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	11.41	8.00	7.36	7.82	7.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.91	6.91	6.90	6.94	6.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.96	6.91	6.90	6.91	6.95
Current Account (% of GDP)	2.4	1.7	-5.8	-5.7	-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	0.7	0.6	-1.9	-1.9	-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	2.5	2.1	-1.2	-1.5	-1.6
Exports (USD billion)	12.2	12.8	8.7	7.0	7.8
Imports (USD billion)	9.7	10.7	9.8	8.5	9.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	3.6	5.4	-32.2	-19.4	10.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	12.9	10.1	-7.8	-13.5	9.3
International Reserves (USD)	12.5	13.2	11.4	8.3	8.2
External Debt (% of GDP)	26.7	27.0	30.0	32.5	-

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Bolivia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	6.93	-0.14 %	Jan 30

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