Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

July 10, 2018

Supported by external tailwinds, the economy is likely performing reasonably well this year, after recording robust growth in 2017. In the first five months of 2018, exports jumped in annual terms, mainly on the back of surging foreign orders of hydrocarbons and minerals, due to higher prices and healthy global growth. Moreover, remittances rose significantly in the same period, which bodes well for consumer spending and was reflected in healthy growth of banking deposits. Further good news came from the hydrocarbon sector: In mid-June, Bolivia signed a contract with Russian gas producer Gazprom. The gas producing giant will invest USD 1.2 billion into exploration and production in Bolivia. That said, sizeable fiscal and current account deficits continue to cast a shadow over the economy.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Economic growth should continue at a healthy pace in 2018, supported by robust external demand, solid consumer spending and rising government infrastructure spending. However, the large twin deficits expose the country to unforeseen shocks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.0% in 2018, unchanged from last month. Next year, growth is seen stable at 4.0%.

Bolivia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)10.410.610.710.911.1
GDP per capita (USD)2,9483,1243,0863,1143,388
GDP (USD bn)30.733.033.133.937.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.85.54.94.34.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.45.65.83.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.79.95.03.411.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.7-3.4-6.9-6.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.137.040.646.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.717.116.3-3.98.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.55.23.04.02.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.84.13.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.418.007.367.827.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.916.916.906.946.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.966.916.906.916.95
Current Account (% of GDP)2.41.7-5.8-5.7-6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.70.6-1.9-1.9-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.52.1-1.2-1.5-1.6
Exports (USD billion)12.212.88.77.07.8
Imports (USD billion)9.710.79.88.59.3
Exports (annual variation in %)3.65.4-32.2-19.410.7
Imports (annual variation in %)12.910.1-7.8-13.59.3
International Reserves (USD)12.513.211.48.38.2
External Debt (% of GDP)26.727.030.032.5-  

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Bolivia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.94-0.14 %Jul 11

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