Bolivia Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022Last year, GDP grew at the fastest rate since the peak of the commodities boom nearly a decade ago. This year, GDP growth is being depressed by a high base effect. That said, underlying activity has likely remained strong. Government coffers will have been supported by rising prices for oil and gas and base metals. Exports were up 33.3% year on year in January–April, boosting international reserves—which rose to USD 2 billion in April from the 16-year low reached in February. This will let the country support its currency peg and therefore avoid a potential balance of payments crisis, which could have resulted in capital controls or a sudden exchange rate adjustment and capital outflows. Meanwhile, because of state subsidies, the currency peg and export controls, inflation remains at by far the lowest rate in Latin America, supporting private consumption.
Bolivia Economic GrowthGrowth will fall this year on a tougher base effect. That said, higher commodity prices will boost the external and fiscal balances, supporting activity. Reignited political tensions are a key risk: Jeanne Áñez, who was president until 2020, was sentenced to 10 years in prison on 10 June for her role in an alleged coup d’état against former president Evo Morales. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.6% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2023.
Bolivia Economy Data
5 years of Bolivia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||6.91||-0.14 %||Jan 01|
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