Iraq Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016The outcome of the late September OPEC meeting to put a cap on oil output could increase oil prices. Iraq was in favor of such a deal as it desperately needs additional revenue since its economy has suffered from the oil price slump and the battle against ISIL. On 21 September, Finance Minister Hoshiyar Zebari lost a no-confidence vote in Parliament, following corruption charges against him. Zebari was leading the negotiations with the IMF and the World Bank over several loans. In other news, the administration’s negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in late August proved successful: Parliament re-included KRG in the fiscal budget and pledged to support the region as it faces severe financial headwinds from still-low crude prices.
Iraq Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,687||6,469||6,686||6,231||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||186||218||232||224||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.5||13.9||6.6||-2.1||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||9.6||12.0||1.4||9.0||21.2|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||4.7||4.1||-5.8||-5.3||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||40.8||34.7||31.9||38.9||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.6||6.1||1.9||2.2||1.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||6.00||6.00||6.00||6.00||6.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,167||1,164||1,165||1,143||1,096|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,171||1,164||1,163||1,163||1,148|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||14.1||13.5||9.7||10.9||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||26.1||29.5||22.6||24.5||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||34.3||37.4||28.6||30.0||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||83.3||94.4||89.6||89.0||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||49.0||57.0||61.0||59.0||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||58.7||13.3||-5.1||-0.6||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||11.6||16.3||7.0||-3.3||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||61.0||70.3||77.7||66.4||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||32.8||27.7||25.5||28.8||-|
5 years of Iraq economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,166||-0.02 %||Oct 24|
Iraq Economic Growth
October 4, 2016Both the OPEC deal and the support from the international financial institutions are buttressing Iraq’s economic outlook, despite the ongoing war with ISIL and persistent mistrust in—and within—the political administration. Analysts project GDP growth of 3.2% in 2016, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, they expect growth of 3.0%.