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Brasil: El Banco Central duplica el ritmo de subidas de tipos en diciembre
En su reunión de los días 10 y 11 de diciembre, el Comité de Política Monetaria (COPOM) del Banco Central de Brasil (BCB) aceleró el ritmo de su ciclo de endurecimiento y aumentó el tipo SELIC en 100 puntos básicos, hasta el 12,25%. La subida, que sigue a la de noviembre de 50 puntos básicos, fue unánime y su magnitud sorprendió a los mercados al alza. El aumento acumulado desde septiembre, cuando se inició el actual ciclo de endurecimiento, asciende a 175 puntos básicos.
El Banco Central decidió subir los tipos de forma más agresiva debido a la persistencia de una inflación general y subyacente por encima del objetivo, además de la solidez de la economía, como demuestra el inesperado crecimiento del PIB en el tercer trimestre. Además, el Banco consideró que los anteriores riesgos al alza para la inflación se han materializado, y ahora las perspectivas son menos inciertas y se han deteriorado: El COPOM elevó sus previsiones de inflación para el segundo trimestre de 2026 en 0,4 puntos porcentuales, hasta el 4,0%, acercándose al límite superior de la banda de tolerancia del Banco del 1,5-4,5%. Además, el Banco señaló que los riesgos siguen sesgados al alza.
Las orientaciones del Banco Central apuntan a dos subidas de la misma magnitud en sus dos próximas reuniones, los días 28 y 29 de enero y 18 y 19 de marzo, respectivamente, opinión compartida por la mayoría de nuestros panelistas. Nuestro consenso es, pues, que la tasa SELIC alcance su nivel máximo en el segundo trimestre y se reduzca ligeramente a finales de año. La política fiscal del Gobierno sigue siendo un factor clave que hay que vigilar, ya que recientemente ha provocado un debilitamiento de la moneda y un mayor desanclaje de las expectativas de inflación.
Reflexionando sobre los riesgos, los analistas de la EIU añadieron: «Existe el riesgo de que el BCB suba los tipos de interés y los mantenga así durante más tiempo del previsto si las expectativas de inflación siguen alejándose del objetivo del 3%, en medio de la persistente preocupación por el compromiso del Gobierno de Lula con la disciplina fiscal.»
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