Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Despite regional heavyweights Nigeria and South Africa holding the region back, growth will surpass that of 2023 this year on stellar performances in Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia and Senegal. Stronger-than-expected population growth is an upside risk, while political instability as a third of the countries head to the polls, threatening investment, is a downside risk.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
In December, regional inflation slowed to 16.1% (November: 16.4%) on slower inflation in Ghana and South Africa. That said, most countries that reported data for January saw higher inflation—Nigerian inflation hit a near three-decade high. This year, regional inflation will slow from 2023 but will be more than double the world’s average and miss most central bank targets.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 1,966 | 1,773 | 1,965 | - | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.8 | - | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -1.9 | 11.4 | - | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.0 | -7.3 | 3.6 | - | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 1.0 | 4.2 | - | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 150 | 138 | - | - | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.5 | 44.8 | 41.1 | - | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 14.9 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 17.4 | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.2 | - | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.1 | 55.7 | 55.2 | - | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.8 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.7 | - |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 10.09 | 8.50 | 8.29 | 11.66 | - |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 415 | 475 | 468 | 505 | 688 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | - | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 274 | 225 | 309 | - | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | - | - |