Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
Regional economic growth will accelerate slightly this year amid stellar performances from Côte d’Ivoire, Rwanda and Senegal. Moreover, growth in regional heavyweights Nigeria and South Africa will also improve. The performance of currencies, extreme weather phenomena, political instability, inflation and subsequent central bank responses are factors to watch.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 16.9% in March (February: 16.6%) on stronger price growth in Angola, Ghana and Nigeria. Average inflation will slow from 2023 in most countries this year, although in most cases, it will remain above the central banks’ targets. Upside risks include extreme weather events, commodity price shocks and weaker-than-anticipated currencies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2021.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.4 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 14.9 | 14.9 | 18.1 | 16.4 | 16.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.1 | -4.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.2 | 55.8 | 55.1 | 55.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.9 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 15.3 | - |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 10.09 | 8.50 | 8.29 | 11.65 | - |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 416 | 475 | 469 | 504 | 692 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.8 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 278 | 229 | 315 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 260 | 217 | 268 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 150 | 138 | - | - | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.5 | 44.8 | 41.1 | 39.0 | - |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,963 | 1,770 | 1,960 | 2,060 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | -1.8 | 4.8 | - | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -1.9 | 11.4 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.0 | -7.2 | 3.7 | - | - |