Venezuela: Car sales continue free fall
November 7, 2013
In October, car sales fell 26.5% over the same month last year, reaching 8,057 units, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading follows a hefty 20.2% drop in September and marks the 10th double-digit contraction in the last eleven months.
In the 12 months up to October, car sales reached just 110,287 units, which is 16.0% lower than the level observed in the same period last year (September: -13.4% year-on-year) and marks the lowest level since September 2010. Car sales remain at less than one-fifth of the peak of 491,899 units recorded in the full year 2007. Extreme supply shortages following government restrictions on both assembly plants and importers have severely hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.
Given the limited availability of timely data for the real sector, analysts often use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to inch down 2.0% this year, which is up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month's estimate. Next year the panel sees private consumption growth at 2.2%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's estimate.