Venezuela: Headline inflation continues to gain momentum
November 3, 2011
In October, the consumer price index for the Caracas Metropolitan Region rose 2.24% over the previous month, which came in above both the 1.49% price increase recorded in September and Consensus Forecast expectations that had prices increasing 1.78%. The monthly increase was driven by higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as for household goods. Given the strong monthly print, annual inflation maintained the upward trend observed since April and increased from 26.7% in September to 27.7% in October, thus marking a seven-month high. Meanwhile, the core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food, oil and other goods subject to government price controls, rose by 2.17% in October. As a result, annual core inflation rose from 29.9% in September to 30.7% in October. According to the 2012 draft budget, the Venezuelan government has estimated that inflation will fall to between 20% and 22% next year, which is slightly down from the 2011 assumption of between 22% and 25%.