Ukraine: GDP contracts further in Q2
September 18, 2013
According to revised data, GDP declined 1.3% over the same period last year in Q2 and exceeded the initial estimate of a 1.1% contraction released on 30 July. The figure followed the 1.1% fall observed in the first quarter of 2013 and marks the fourth consecutive contraction in output.
The contraction was driven by a sharp decline in investment amid a destocking process. Fixed investment plummeted 19.7% (Q1: 4.0% year-on-year), marking the largest contraction since Q4 2009. Private consumption expanded 7.4% in the second quarter (Q1 2013: +4.5% yoy), while public spending contracted 1.0% (Q1: +2.1% yoy).
On the external side of the economy, exports contracted 14.4% in the second quarter (Q1: -6.8% yoy), while imports dropped 19.1% (Q1: -4.6% yoy).
A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the deterioration suggested by the annual figures, as the economy contracted a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter (Q1: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter).
FocusEconomics participants see the economy growing 0.4% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, panelists expect that the economy will grow 2.4%.