Ukraine: GDP continues to contract in Q3 2013
December 19, 2013
According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP declined 1.3% in Q3 over the same period of the previous year. The figure matched the 1.3% fall observed in the second quarter of 2013 and marks the fifth consecutive contraction in output. The contraction was driven by both domestic and external demand.
On the domestic side of the economy, investment contracted 7.1% year-on-year (Q2: -19.7% year-on-year). Although private consumption expanded a strong 6.4%, it marked a deceleration over the 7.4% expansion tallied in Q2. In turn, public consumption marked the lowest reading since Q4 2011, falling 3.0% (Q2: -1.0%, yoy).
On the external front, exports contracted 7.8% in the third quarter (Q2: -14.4% yoy), while imports dropped 1.1% (Q2: -19.1% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth swung from plus 4.5 percentage points in Q2 to minus 2.3 percentage points in Q3, which was the lowest reading since Q3 2012.
FocusEconomics participants see the economy expanding 1.3% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect that the economy will grow 2.9%.