Turkey: Consumer sentiment retreats in March
March 27, 2013
In March, the consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank fell to 74.9 points from 76.7 points in February, which had marked the highest level seen since July 2012. As a result, consumer confidence remains well below the 100-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory. Moreover, at its current level, the index is now 4.4 points below the level observed in the same month last year.
According to the Statistical Institute, the deterioration seen in consumer confidence was broad-based, as all the four sub-components that compose the index retreated over the previous month. Job prospects for the next 12 months registered the largest drop, while the economic situation in the next 12 months saw a mild decrease. On the other hand, both the probability of saving as well as consumers' assessment regarding their financial situation in the next 12 months remained broadly stable.
Low levels of consumer confidence do not bode well for private consumption going forward. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see private consumption expanding 3.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects private consumption to grow 4.5%.