Turkey: Consumer sentiment hits a four-month low in January
January 28, 2014
The consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank declined from 75.0 points in December to 72.4 points in January, which marked a fourth-month low. Consumer confidence remains firmly entrenched below the 100-point threshold that separates pessimistic from optimistic territory, which does not bode well for private consumption going forward.
According to the Statistical Institute, the majority of the index's sub-categories lost ground over the previous month. Consumers' outlook on the country's economic situation in the coming 12 months recorded the largest drop and fell to its lowest level since November 2012. Sentiment regarding job prospects also recorded a sizeable decline, while consumers' views regarding their personal financial situations in the next 12 months receded slightly. Conversely, households were more optimistic regarding the probability that they will save money in the next 12 months. Overall, consumers' mood deteriorated in January due to the ongoing political unrest that has plagued the country since the graft probe against people connected to the ruling AKP party was initiated in mid-December.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption expanding 2.9% in 2014, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, the panel expects private consumption to grow 4.0%.