Slovakia: Q3 2013 GDP matches preliminary estimate
December 4, 2013
In the third quarter of 2013, GDP matched the preliminary estimate and grew 0.9% over the same period of the previous year according to the official data released by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (SOSR) on 4 December. The print, which came in a tad above the 0.8% expansion registered in Q2, marked the largest expansion since Q3 2012.
Despite the fact that both internal and external demand performed worse than in the previous quarter, economic growth benefited from a strong restocking process. Total consumption expanded 0.7% over the same quarter last year (Q2: +0.8% year-on-year). In turn, private consumption expanded a meager 0.1% in Q3, which was down from the 0.9% expansion tallied in Q2. Government spending, however, registered the largest expansion since Q1 2010 after expanding 2.8% in Q3 (Q2: +0.4% yoy). Fixed investment contracted a 9.8% in Q3, down from the 4.8% contraction tallied in the second quarter.
On the external front, exports expanded 1.9%, which was down from the 4.4% expansion tallied in Q2. In turn, imports contracted 0.4% (Q2: +1.9% yoy). Both exports and imports marked the lowest readings since Q4 2009. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to economic growth edged down from the 2.8 percentage points tallied in Q2 to 2.1 percentage points in the third quarter.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison, however, does not corroborate the acceleration suggested by the annual figures; GDP rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% over the previous quarter, which was a notch down from the 0.3% increase in the second quarter.
The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) projects that GDP will grow 2.1% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth to reach 2.2% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, the panel projects that economic growth will accelerate to 2.9%.