Singapore: GDP contracts further in Q4
January 2, 2014
According to an advance estimate released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on 2 January, in Q4 2013, GDP contracted 2.7% over the third quarter at a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR). The reading was below market expectations of a 1.3% contraction and contrasted the 2.2% expansion recorded in Q3. GDP expanded 4.4% over the same period of the previous year (Q3: +5.9% year-on-year).
The decrease in the fourth quarter was broad-based. Manufacturing contracted 4.0% over the third quarter in SAAR terms, which contrasted the 1.2% increase recorded in Q3. In addition, construction fell 6.7% (Q3: +1.7% quarter-on-quarter SAAR), while services contracted 1.7% (Q3: +3.0% qoq SAAR).
The Monetary Authority of Singapore expects GDP to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that the economy will increase 3.7% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, the panel expects growth to accelerate to 3.8%.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist