Singapore: Deterioration in economic activity in Q3
November 21, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 1.3% over the second quarter, according to detailed figures released on 21 November (Q2: +16.9% SAAR). The figure contracted significantly compared to both the 1.0% contraction previously estimated and the 0.3% decrease the market had expected. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 5.8% (previously reported: +5.1% quarter-on-quarter), which was above the 4.4% expansion recorded in the second quarter.
Revised figures show that manufacturing output increased 0.1% in Q3 (previously reported: -3.4% qoq SAAR), which significantly contrasted the 33.5% expansion recorded in Q2. In addition, the construction sector contracted 2.5% in the third quarter (previously reported: -8.8% qoq SAAR; Q2: +20.9% qoq SAAR). Services also deteriorated, falling from a 12.9% expansion in the second quarter to a 2.8% rise in the third quarter (previously reported: +1.0% qoq SAAR).
The government expects GDP to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists project the economy to increase 3.1% in 2013, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects growth to accelerate to 3.6%, which is unchanged from last month's estimate.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist