Russia: Trade surplus narrows further in September
October 10, 2011
In August, exports added 40.1% over the same month the previous year to reach USD 44.6 billion, which marked an acceleration compared to the 35.7% expansion registered in July. Meanwhile, imports rose 25.5% year-on-year in August to reach USD 29.9 billion, which constituted a moderation compared to the 30.6% increase recorded in July. Despite the acceleration in exports, the trade surplus narrowed from USD 15.2 billion in July to USD 14.7 billion in August, representing the smallest surplus since the beginning of the year, and matching the reading recorded in January. Since mid-August, the price for Ural oil, Russia's key export commodity, has experienced a strong downward correction, amid deteriorating prospects for the global economy that might lead to a decline in oil demand going forward. In the last week of September, the Ural oil price reached USD 104.62 per barrel, which was up 65.7% from the price recorded in September last year. However, the reading was down 13.6% from the 3-year peak recorded in April this year (USD 121.05 per barrel). If the downward trend continues, export revenues will moderate going forward.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions