Russia: Industrial output records worst result in more than three years
March 18, 2013
In February, industrial production contracted 2.1% over the same month the previous year, marking the worst result in more than three years. The decline exceeded the 0.8% fall recorded in January and market expectations of a 1.0% drop. Two out of the three main sectors composing the industrial sector deteriorated compared to January. In particular, electricity, gas and water swung from a 1.8% expansion in January to a sizable 10.0% drop in February. The contraction, however, was largely affected by an unusually warm weather.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output fell 0.1% (January: +1.6% mom). As a result of the February drop, the trend continues to point downwards, with the average annual variation in industrial production falling from 2.3% in January to 1.6% in February.
The government expects industrial output to expand 3.6% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to increase 3.1% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects industrial production growth to accelerate to 3.6%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions