Russia: GDP moderates in first quarter
May 16, 2011
According to the flash estimate published by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 16 May, GDP grew 4.1% in the first quarter over the same period last year. The result represented a deceleration compared to the 4.5% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010 and was a notch below market analysts' expectations, which had the economy growing 4.2%. Moreover, the result fell short of the 4.3% growth estimate based on the monthly index of economic activity, with March data published by Rosstat on 29 April. In its flash estimate, Rosstat did not provide a quarter-on-quarter reading. However, according to an estimate from the Economy Ministry published on 25 April, in the first quarter GDP dropped a seasonally adjusted 1.3% over Q4 2010, more than halving the 2.8% quarterly expansion recorded in the previous 3-month period. The Ministry of Economic Development expects the economy to expand 4.2% in 2011. In 2012, the Ministry sees economic growth moderating to 3.5%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions