Russia: GDP inches up in Q1
June 15, 2012
In the first quarter, GDP expanded 4.9% over the same period last year, according to revised estimates from 2 July. The reading was above the 4.8% year-on-year growth recorded in Q4 2011 and confirmed the results of the preliminary estimate released on 15 May. The reading was driven by an improved contribution from the external sector of the economy. Exports of goods and services rose 4.4% in the first quarter (Q4: +1.4% yoy), while imports expanded 10.2% (Q4: +14.9% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth improved from minus 2.9 percentage points in Q4 2011 to minus 0.5 percentage points in Q1. On the domestic side of the economy, private consumption rose 7.2% over the same period last year (Q4: +7.7% yoy), while government consumption dropped 0.5% (Q4: +1.4% yoy). Finally, gross fixed investment expanded 15.0% (Q4: +13.2% yoy). A quarter-on-quarter comparison does not corroborate the improvement suggested by the annual figures, as the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.91% in Q1, down from the 1.88% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. The government expects the economy to grow 3.4% this year. For 2013, the government sees economic growth accelerating to 3.8%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions