Portugal Economic Sentiment

Portugal

Portugal: Leading indicators show mixed signals in October

October 30, 2013

In October, the consumer confidence index declined to minus 43.5 points. The result came in below the minus 40.9 points tallied in August, which marked the highest level since September 2010. According to the statistical institute, the decrease in consumer confidence was broad-based, as all areas deteriorated over the previous month. In particular, consumers were more pessimistic about the country's economic situation.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to contract 2.7% in 2013, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel expects private consumption to decline 0.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's projection.

Conversely, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 1.6 points in September to minus 1.3 points in October, hitting its highest level since March 2011. Despite the increase, economic sentiment remains weak, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term.

Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to contract 8.8% in 2013, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment rising 0.1% which is up 0.6 percentage points over the previous month's projection.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Portugal Economic Sentiment October 2013

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).


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