Portugal Economic Sentiment

Portugal

Portugal: Leading indicators show mixed results in May

May 30, 2013

In May, the consumer confidence index fell to minus 55.2 points, from the minus 54.3 points recorded in April. At the current level, consumer sentiment is 3.1 points below the level observed in the same month last year. Consumers were more pessimistic regarding prospects on the evolution of the economy in the next 12 months as well as on their savings in the next 12 months. On the other hand, households' financial situation and job prospects improved. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to contract 3.5% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel anticipates private consumption to contract 0.6%.

Simultaneously, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 3.6 points in April to minus 3.2 points in May, thereby reaching its highest level since October 2011. That said, despite the small rise, economic sentiment remains depressed, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term. Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect fixed investment to contract 7.3% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment falling 2.0%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Portugal Economic Sentiment May 2013

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).


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