Portugal: Leading indicators improve in June
June 27, 2013
In June, the consumer confidence index rose to minus 52.1 points, from the minus 55.2 points recorded in May. Although the reading represents the highest reading observed in 10 months, at the current level, consumer sentiment is 2.7 points below the level observed in the same month last year. According to the statistical institute, the increase in consumer confidence was broad-based, as all its sub-components improved over the previous month. In particular, consumers were more optimistic regarding their prospects on the evolution of unemployment and their future financial situation. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to contract 3.6% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel anticipates private consumption to contract 0.8%.
Simultaneously, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 3.2 points in May to minus 2.9 points in June, thereby reaching its highest level since October 2011. That said, despite the small rise, economic sentiment remains depressed, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term. Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect fixed investment to contract 7.7% in 2013, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment falling 0.7%.