Portugal Economic Sentiment

Portugal

Portugal: Leading indicators continue to improve in September

September 27, 2013

The consumer confidence index rose from minus 44.1 points in August to minus 40.9 points in September, reaching the highest level since September 2010. According to the statistical institute, the increase in consumer confidence was broad-based, as all areas improved over the previous month. In particular, consumers were more optimistic about prospects for employment and the country's economic situation.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to contract 3.5% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel expects private consumption to contract 0.7%.

Simultaneously, the economic climate indicator rose from minus 1.9 points in August to minus 1.6 points in September, hitting its highest level since April 2011. Despite the increase, economic sentiment remains weak, which does not bode well for economic activity in the near term.

Accordingly, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to contract 9.5% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel sees investment falling 1.2%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Portugal Economic Sentiment September 2013

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).


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