Poland: GDP growth slows further at the end of 2012
March 1, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 1.1% over the same quarter the year before, which was below the 1.4% expansion recorded in the third quarter but above market expectations of a 0.9% increase. In fact, the reading represented the slowest pace of economic growth observed since the second quarter of 2009. Compared to the previous quarter, economic growth increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% (Q3 2012: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter). In the full year 2012, the economy expanded 2.0%, well below the 4.3% rise tallied in 2011.
The deceleration in the final quarter of 2012 was mainly driven by a deterioration in private consumption, which swung from a 0.1% increase in the third quarter to a 1.0% contraction in the fourth. Government consumption, on the other hand, added 0.2%, mirroring the result recorded in the third quarter. Meanwhile, fixed investment fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter (Q3: -1.5% year-on-year).
On the external side, exports expanded 2.5% (Q3: +0.7% yoy), whereas imports fell 2.0% (Q3: -3.7% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 2.1 percentage points in the third quarter to 1.8 percentage points in the fourth.
The Central Bank expects GDP to expand 1.5% in 2013, before accelerating to 2.3% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists are more optimistic than the Bank and expect that the economy will expand 1.6% in 2013, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month's forecast. For 2014, panellists expect the economy to grow 2.8%.