Poland: Domestic demand supports robust economic growth in Q1
May 31, 2011
In the first quarter, GDP increased 4.4% over the same quarter of the previous year. The result was in line with market expectations but a notch below the 4.5% growth registered in the fourth quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy increased a seasonally adjusted 1.0% (Q4: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter). Domestic demand continued to have the most significant impact on GDP growth, adding 4.5% in Q1 (Q4: +6.3% year-on-year). Private consumption rose 3.9% over the same period last year, below the 4.0% increase registered in the fourth quarter. Gross fixed investment expanded a strong 6.0%, up from the 1.6% rise in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth improved compared to the fourth quarter, but remained negative. Exports grew 5.9% in the first quarter (Q4: +7.0% yoy) and imports increased 6.2% (Q4: +11.6% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall economic growth increased from minus 1.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.1 percentage points in the first. At the sector level, industry increased 7.8%, up from the 6.5% rise recorded in Q4, while services expanded 3.3% (Q4: +3.3% yoy). In its March Inflation Report, the Central Bank sees the economy growing 4.2% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012.