Philippines: Leading Economic Indicator predicts slowdown in Q2
March 31, 2011
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) published by the National Statistics Coordination Board (NSCB) fell slightly from 0.115 points in the first quarter to 0.103 points in the second. The print represented a deterioration over the first quarter reading when the LEI increased by 0.032 points. Only five of the eleven components composing the LEI were positive. In particular, merchandise imports and wholesale prices pushed the indicator upwards. On the other hand, terms of trade and the number of new businesses dragged the LEI downwards. A deteriorating LEI suggests that the economy may slow in the second quarter of 2011, after expanding a strong 7.1% in the final quarter of 2010. Official first quarter GDP data will be available on 30 May. The government expects growth to remain within the 7.0 - 8.0% target in 2011.