Peru: Trade balance shows first surplus in three months
May 10, 2013
In March, the trade balance reported a USD 200 million surplus, which was below the USD 766 million surplus observed in the same month last year, but contrasted the deficits registered in January and February. Nonetheless, in the 12 months up to March, the trade surplus narrowed to USD 1.9 billion, which represents the lowest level seen since May 2009.
The monthly figure reflected that exports contracted 16.2% annually in March, which nevertheless marks an improvement compared to the 18.7% fall observed in the previous month; while imports dropped 3.2%, which contrasted the 10.1% expansion observed in February. The 12-month moving sum of exports up to March declined 8.7% (February: -6.5% year-on-year), while in the 12 months up to the same month, imports increased 9.0% (February: +10.7% yoy).
The Central Bank expects exports to grow 5.7% in 2013, before accelerating to 12.8% in 2014. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 7.4% this year, before accelerating to 10.1% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist