Peru: Trade balance continues to deteriorate despite rebound in exports
October 11, 2013
In August, the trade balance incurred a negligible deficit of USD 3.3 million, which contrasted the USD 71.0 million surplus observed in the same month last year. In the 12 months up to August, the trade balance posted a USD 459 million surplus, which represents Peru's smallest trade surplus since April 2003.
Exports rebounded in August, increasing 1.8% over the same month last year (July: -10.3% year-on-year) and marking a nine-month high. Nevertheless, imports grew faster and increased 3.8% in August over the same month last year, following the 0.9% increase tallied in July.
Due to lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 8.2% this year, which is down the 3.5% contraction previously estimated. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 9.2% (initially estimated: +7.8% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports declining 3.8% this year, before expanding 7.9% in 2014.