Peru: Exports plunge in June
August 9, 2013
The trade balance recorded USD 114 million deficit in June, which contrasts the USD 562 million surplus observed in the same month last year. The reading represents the fifth deficit recorded in the last six months. In the 12 months up to June, the trade balance posted a USD 694 million surplus, which was well below the USD 1.4 billion surplus observed in the 12-month period up to May. This is the smallest surplus recorded in nearly a decade.
June's trade deficit reflects a substantial 18.8% annual contraction in exports (May: -5.0% year-on-year). Meanwhile, imports swung from a 6.4% increase in May to a 1.2% decline in June. The 12-month sum of exports up to June dropped 7.8% in annual terms (May: -7.1% yoy). Imports increased 9.3% (May: +9.3 yoy) in the same period.
Due to lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 3.5% this year, which contrasts the 3.2% expansion previously estimated. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 7.8% (initially estimated: +10.3% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists see exports growing 5.1% this year, before accelerating to 8.9% in 2014.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist