Peru: Exports plummet in September, trade balance remains positive
November 12, 2013
In September, the trade balance stayed in positive territory at 3.6 million, although it was down from the USD 103.6 million surplus tallied in August (previously reported: USD 3.3 million deficit). The print is also significantly under the USD 569.2 million surplus registered in the same month last year. In the 12 months up to September, the trade balance posted a USD 15 million surplus, which represents Peru's smallest trade surplus since May 2002.
Exports plummeted in September, contracting 15.8% over the same month last year (August: +4.8% year-on-year) and marking the lowest reading since February of this year. Imports contracted a smaller 2.2% over the same month last year (August: +4.0% yoy), driving the trade balance surplus down.
Due to lower commodity prices and slower global demand, the Central Bank revised its export forecasts and now expects overseas sales to decline 8.2% this year, which is greater than the 3.5% contraction estimated previously. For 2014, the Bank sees exports growing 9.2% (initially estimated: +7.8% yoy). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports declining 4.5% this year, before expanding 8.4% in 2014.