Peru: Exports contract further, trade balance deteriorates
January 10, 2014
In November 2013, the trade balance registered a deficit of USD 170 million, which contrasted the USD 219 million surplus observed in the same month of the previous year. In the 12 months up to November, the trade balance posted a USD 280 million deficit, which is the first negative reading since April 2002. Exports plummeted in November, falling 15.8% over the same month of the previous year (October: -9.3% year-on-year) and marking the lowest reading in nine months. Although imports contracted a lesser 5.9% in November, it was nevertheless the sharpest decline that has been recorded since October 2009. In addition, the decrease followed the 0.5% contraction tallied in October. In its December quarterly Inflation Report, the Central Bank revised down its projections and now expects exports to grow 3.2% in 2014. For 2015, the Bank sees overseas sales expanding a healthier 12.3%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports expanding 6.5% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from previous month's estimate. For 2015, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 9.0%.