Peru: Contraction in exports softens in December
February 11, 2014
In December, the trade balance registered a surplus of USD 480 million, which was down from the USD 880 million surplus observed in the same month of the previous year. In the 12 months up to December, the trade balance posted a USD 365 million deficit, which marked the lowest level since May 2001.
Exports contracted in December, falling 9.4% over the same month of the previous year (November: -15.4% year-on-year). In the full year 2013, exports contracted 9.3%, which was a deterioration compared to the 1.5% expansion tallied in 2012. In turn, imports expanded a miniscule 0.8% in December, which was, nevertheless, an improvement over the 5.8% contraction in November. In the full year 2013, imports expanded 2.9%, which was down from the 11.5% expansion seen in 2012.
In its December quarterly Inflation Report, the Central Bank stated that it expects exports to grow 3.2% in 2014. For 2015, the Bank sees overseas sales expanding a healthier 12.3%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports expanding 5.8% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from previous month's estimate. For 2015, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 8.5%.