Peru: Economic growth accelerates in November
January 21, 2011
In November, economic activity grew 10.0% over the same month the previous year, which was above the 8.3% increase observed in October. The reading, which overshot market expectations of a 9.0% rise, represented the third month of double-digit growth in economic activity in 2010. The November acceleration mainly reflected strong growth in manufacturing, which expanded 14.4% annually, and grew at virtually the same pace as recorded in October (October: +14.7 year-on-year). Commerce posted faster growth than in October, growing 10.8% year-on-year (October: +7.9% yoy). In addition, the construction sector rebounded, rising 23.8% in November, which more than doubled the 10.7% expansion observed in October. As a result of the strong reading in November, the trend continues to point to a strong recovery, with annual average growth in economic activity rising from 8.0% in October to 8.5% in November, marking the fastest pace of growth since January 2009. Despite the strong result, a month-on-month assessment does not corroborate the acceleration suggested by the annual data, as economic activity dropped 0.65% in November in seasonally adjusted terms, contrasting the 1.05% rise registered in October. Meanwhile, the Central Bank expects the economy to expand 6.5% this year. For 2012, the Bank anticipates the economy to grow 6.0%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist