Norway GDP

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Norway: Total GDP rebounds strongly in Q2 on rising oil activity

August 20, 2013

In the second quarter, total GDP rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% over the previous period, contrasting the revised 0.1% drop tallied in the first quarter (previously reported: -0.2% quarter-on-quarter). The print marked the fastest acceleration since Q1 2012 but undershot the 1.0% expansion market analysts had expected. According to the statistical institute, total GDP benefited from a strong expansion in petroleum activities and ocean transport. On an annual basis, total GDP rebounded from a 2.6% contraction in the first quarter to a 2.6% increase in the second quarter, marking the biggest gain since Q2 2012.

Norway mainland's GDP - which consists of all domestic production activity except for extraction of crude oil and natural gas (including related services), pipeline and ocean transport - rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% over the previous quarter. The print marks a deceleration over the 0.6% expansion recorded in Q1 (previously reported: +0.7% qoq) and undershot the 0.7% increase expected by the market. Compared to the same period last year, the mainland economy expanded 4.0% in the second quarter, which contrasted the 0.5% decrease tallied in the previous three-month period.

Private consumption slowed to a 0.2% increase in the second quarter (Q1: +1.1% qoq), whereas government spending accelerated to a 0.8% expansion (Q1: +0.5% qoq). In addition, gross fixed capital investment expanded a robust 5.1% in Q2 (Q1: -2.0% qoq), recording the fastest acceleration since Q3 2011.

Exports of goods and services improved in the second quarter, expanding a seasonally adjusted 2.2% over the previous three-month period (Q1: -1.7% qoq). Meanwhile, imports rose 0.9%, contrasting the 1.8% contraction in the first quarter. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth swung from minus 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter to plus 0.6 percentage points in the second quarter.

The Central Bank expects total GDP to rise 0.5% in 2013, before accelerating to a 2.5% expansion in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see total GDP increasing 1.7% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.4%.

Meanwhile, the Bank sees Mainland GDP expanding 2.5% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect Mainland GDP to increase 2.5% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. In 2014, panellists see GDP growth rising to 2.7%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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Norway GDP Q2 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Norway (SN) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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