Mexico: Trade balance records surplus on rise in exports and falling imports
December 26, 2013
The trade balance recorded a USD 339 million surplus in November, which contrasted the USD 129 million deficit recorded in the previous month. November's trade surplus also contrasted both the USD 1.3 billion shortfall observed in the same month of the previous year and market expectations of a USD 742 million deficit.
November's surprising result was due to a 0.8% year-on-year increase in exports (October: +3.4% year-on-year), as an increase in shipments of manufacturing goods and agricultural products offset a decline in overseas sales of petroleum. Meanwhile, imports contracted 4.1% annually in November, which was faster than the 1.0% decrease tallied in October. The reading suggests that domestic demand still lacks momentum.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect export growth to gain momentum in 2014 and increase 7.3%, while imports are expected to rise a stronger 8.0%. For 2015, the panel expects exports and imports to moderate, growing 6.5% and 6.4% respectively.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist