Mexico: January trade balance undershoots surplus expectation
February 28, 2014
In January, the trade balance recorded a USD 3.2 billion deficit. The reading was below the USD 2.9 billion shortfall registered in the same month last year and contrasted the USD 314 billion surplus that the market had expected.
January's unexpected trade deficit was the result of lower exports. Overseas sales totaled USD 27.0 billion in January, which represents a 1.0% contraction compared to the same month last year (December: +6.3% year-on-year). According to the Statistical Institute (INEGI), shipments of petroleum products led the decline. Meanwhile, imports totaled USD 30.2 billion in January, which represents a 0.3% annual expansion (December: +4.2% yoy).
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 7.2%, reaching USD 409 billion, while imports are expected to rise 8.4% and reach USD 420 billion. For 2015, the panel expects exports and imports to increase 8.8% and 7.7% respectively.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist