Lithuania: GDP growth slows in the last quarter of 2012
February 28, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP grew 4.1% over the same period the year before. The result was below the 4.4% expansion recorded in the third quarter but slightly overshot the 4.0% increase reported in the 30 January flash estimate. In the full year 2012, the economy expanded 3.6%, below the solid 5.9% growth rate tallied in 2011. The deceleration in Q4 was the result of weaker domestic demand. Private consumption grew 3.2% over the same period the year before (Q3 2012: +3.3% year-on-year), while government consumption rose 0.9% (Q3: +0.8% yoy). Gross fixed investment, on the other hand, fell 7.7% (Q3: -3.9% yoy). Exports of goods and services accelerated from a 13.9% expansion in the third quarter to a 19.3% rise in the fourth. Simultaneously, imports rose 10.1% (Q3: +9.9% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth increased from 3.2 percentage points in the third quarter to 7.3 percentage points in the fourth. A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the deceleration suggested by annual figures, as GDP expanded a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.7% over the previous quarter, which was down from the 1.2% increase registered in the third quarter. According to its macroeconomic forecasts from February, the Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 3.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.