Lithuania: GDP growth moderates in Q1
May 29, 2013
In the first quarter, GDP grew 3.5% over the same period last year, according to revised data published by on 29 May. The result was below the 4.1% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter but slightly overshot the 3.5% increase reported in the 30 April flash estimate.
The deceleration in Q1 was the result of a weaker external sector. Exports of goods and services slowed from a 21.4% expansion in the fourth quarter to a 15.6% rise in the first. Simultaneously, imports rose 9.1% (Q4 2012: +12.1% year-on-year). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 7.4 percentage points in the fourth quarter to 5.1 percentage points in the first.
On the domestic side, private consumption grew 2.9% over the same period the year before (Q4: +2.7% yoy), while government consumption rose 1.4% (Q4: -0.3% yoy). Finally, gross fixed investment expanded 6.4%, rebounding from a 7.7% contraction in Q4.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis does not corroborates the deceleration suggested by annual figures, as GDP expanded a seasonally and working-day adjusted 1.3% over the previous quarter, which was up from the 0.7% increase registered in the fourth quarter.
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 3.1% in 2013 and 3.8% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 3.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.4%.