Japan GDP

Japan

Japan: Economic growth disappoints in Q4

February 17, 2014

The fourth quarter national accounts data cast doubts on Japan's economic recovery as a sales-tax increase is looming on the April horizon. In Q4, GDP rose 1.0% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR). Although the print marks just a slight deceleration compared to the 1.1% increase recorded in the previous quarter, it was well below the 2.8% increase that market analysts had expected. On an annual basis, economic activity increased 2.8% in Q4 (Q3: +2.3% year-on-year). In the full year 2013, GDP expanded 1.6%, which marked an acceleration over the 1.4% increase tallied in 2012.

The deceleration in Q4 reflects a deterioration in the external sector, whereas domestic demand gained traction. Private consumption accelerated to a 2.0% increase in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter SAAR), while government spending grew 2.0% (Q3: +1.0% qoq SAAR). In addition, private non-residential investment registered a 5.3% increase (Q3: +0.8% qoq SAAR), which marked the highest rate since Q4 2011.

Exports of goods and services rebounded, rising 1.7% over the previous quarter in annualized terms (Q3: -2.7% qoq SAAR). Meanwhile, imports expanded at their fastest pace since Q2 2010, jumping 14.9% in Q4 (Q3: +10.1% qoq SAAR). As a result of the healthy increase in purchases from overseas, the external sector's annualized net contribution to overall growth fell from minus 2.0 percentage points in Q3 to minus 2.2 percentage points in Q4.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 0.9% and 1.5% in the fiscal year ending in March 2015. In the subsequent fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.2% and 1.8%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.6% in the calendar year 2014, which is unchanged from last month's projection. In 2015, the panel sees the economy growing 1.3%.


Author:,

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Japan? Download a sample report now.

Download

Japan GDP Chart


Japan GDP Q4 2013

Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual variation of GDP in %.
Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


Japan Economic News

  • Japan: Machinery orders decline in May

    July 11, 2018

    Although core machinery orders—a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period—contracted in May, the fall was weaker-than-expected, suggesting that capital expenditure will gain steam further down the road.

    Read more

  • Japan: Business confidence weakens in Q2

    July 2, 2018

    According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey, sentiment among large manufacturers fell in the second quarter of 2018, suggesting economic momentum has yet to gain traction following a weak first quarter.

    Read more

  • Japan: Consumer confidence declines marginally in June

    June 29, 2018

    Consumer sentiment inched down to 43.7 in June from 43.8 in May, coming in just below market expectations of a stable print.

    Read more

  • Japan: Industrial production falls in May

    June 29, 2018

    Industrial production contracted 0.2% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in May, contrasting April’s revised 0.5% increase (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month).

    Read more

  • Japan: Core inflation stable in May

    June 22, 2018

    The core consumer price index rose 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in May, reversing April’s 0.1% fall. Core inflation was steady at 0.7% in May, unchanged from April and in line with market expectations.

    Read more

More news

Search form